Kidding aside, I know two "centrists" who swore up-and-down that if McCain was the GOP nominee, they would vote for him.
Neither did, of course.
Both gave the same reason, George Bush (from whom McCain went through great pains to distance himself.)
I betcha that if McCain had vigorously SUPPORTED Dubya, and not ceded the debate points to Marxist Obama, then McCain might have won.
(Conflicting opinions welcomed.)
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McCain lost because he was, well, McCain. Had he not been McCain, he might have won.