Posted on 09/05/2009 6:47:21 PM PDT by mware
CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) - Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist who predicted the scale of global financial troubles, said a U-shaped recovery is possible, with leading economies undeperforming perhaps for 3 years.
He said there is also an increasing risk of a "double-dip" scenario, however.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
So is a W-shaped recovery or a U-V-W-shaped recovery or no recovery at all.
“I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a U-shaped economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend ... especially for the advanced economies, for at least 2 or 3 years,” he said at a news conference here.
“Within that U scenario I also see a small probability, but a rising probability, that if we don’t get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse in growth ... a double-dip recession,” he added.
In other words, it could go either way.
Modern day prophets and prognosticators ... a dime a dozen.
Where is the link for the prediction, did he do it in 2005 are 2004.
I will see if I can find anything on the search engines.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/
Damn it’s going to take sometime to wade through that.
I was kind of hoping that the Cavuto might touch on it next week.
Unfortunately, I used my college macroeconomics textbook as a sleep aid.
It's already gone down: Obama - Biden.
Now then, how can one expect a legally and morally hamstrung economy to truly "recover" at all?
So did my wife. I, however, chose it as a major.
We’re in a U shaped recession. Without the stupid government policies/stimulus, it would have been V shaped.
A W is possible, but not for the reasons Roubini gives. The guy is a Keynesian. Trying to understand a Keynesian is useless. You can’t understand, twisted, irrational logic. It’s why most people hate economics. They study Keynesian macro.
Ignore him.
Make it a double W.
Is this a new twist? I thought Roubini was strongly leaning toward a W-shaped recession with a tiny possiblity of a depression. What changed to make him think a U-shaped recession is most probable? Or did I misread him in the past?
Maybe I am wrong...
April 7, 2008, Roubini predicts a U-shaped recession of 18-months duration ending mid-2009.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/252460/
August 16, 2009, Roublin predicted a U-shaped recession of 24-months duration.
He has always recognized a possiblity of a W-shaped recession if the stimulus had any effect. If stimulus works, it creates a brief GDP growth and double-dip recession. If stimulus doesn’t work, then a long U-shaped recession.
OK, he has been on message for 2 years. It was me that got it wrong.
I tell people that Macroeconomics was the most difficult course that I ever took, and that includes four graduate level quantuum mechanics courses. When physicists I speak to hear that, they raise their eyebrows a bit, but when I begin to explain some things that it is obvious that they never considered before (side effects of weaker dollar, for example) it doesn’t take them long to clam up.
The top economists who have any kind of competency in the subject have my admiration, even if they often do get it wrong.
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