He also could have won by fighting tooth and nail against the $800 Billion bailout. Alas, he floundered and was its cheerleader.
I don’t know if he would have won with Bush’s unpopularity and the economy, not to mention the massive spending advantage of Obama and the way underreported impact of the black vote. Kerry got 48.3% in 2004. I don’t think anyone would think that in 2008 after 4 yrs of Bush and his collapse in approval, not to mention the 06 elections, and the economy that Obama or any dem would do worse than Kerry did. So Obama started with 48.3 from the beginning.
When you factor in that the black vote increased from 11% to 13% of the total vote while the white vote shrank from 77% to 74% and Obama’s share of the black vote was 95-4 as opposed to the 89-11 that Kerry got, Obama got around an extra 1.5-2 pts merely from the increase in the black vote alone. I don’t think anyone would seriously suggest that the increase in the black vote had anything to with McCain or was his fault. So Obama had around 50% just from the black vote and when you add in hispanics he was at 51 or so even if not one white person changed their vote.
But opposing the bailout was his last chance and he didn’t. It was his one chance to stand in front of a natl tv audience, next to Obama, and say “My friends, one of us on this stage tonight stood with George W Bush and voted to give 700 Billion dollars of your hard earned money away. One of us on this stage stood with George W Bush and voted to continue his disastrous and reckless fiscal policies. You and I are both looking at him right now. And, my friends, one man on this stage stood against George W Bush and ran against him. Senator Obama is looking at him”
I don’t know if that would have worked, but it might have.