Posted on 10/30/2009 5:25:13 AM PDT by cc2k
A new CBS 5 poll released Thursday showed Democrat John Garamendi remained the favorite in the special election for California's 10th Congressional District seat.
The poll's results also found that half of the expected votes in the race have already been cast.
With five days until votes are counted, the poll conducted for CBS 5 by SurveryUSA showed Garamendi defeating Republican David Harmer by 10 percentage points.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbs5.com ...
If Republicans are motivated and turn out like they did for the primary, the race will be closer than this poll indicates. It could still be an upset victory for Harmer, though that looks less likely now.
What bothers me about this race is that the NRCC and RNC have ignored it. Garamendi has had Obama and Bill Clinton out in the district making campaign appearances. He is also running television ads financed by the DCCC in this district. They know they are weak here. They also know that losing this “safe Democrat district” will scare blue dogs everywhere and could make them less supportive of the radical left agenda of this administration and congressional leadership.
The RNC and NRCC have ignored this winnable race and done almost nothing out here.
If the NRCC and RNC hadn’t been spending all of their money pushing a (losing) radical leftist in upstate New York, they could have picked up this seat in California and sent a strong message to the Democrats.
I am also contacting the NRCC to ask why they are supporting Scozzafava in the race in upstate New York, and why they are ignoring David Harmer in this close race in California’s 10th district. Here are the numbers if anyone else wants to call:
Info from the NRCC "contact us" web page: Contact the NRCC
Address:
320 First Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003
General Email:
website@nrcc.org
Phone:
Phone: 202-479-7000
Also, perhaps those of us who donated to the RNC or RCCC should ask for our money back so we can support the conservative candidates of our choice.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info).
|
Why would the NRCC want to send a message to Democrats, considering they are as liberal as the Dems are?
The problem with the republican party is the fact that too many democraps are in it.
Sounds like the CBS poll is trying to depress Repub votes. This may be close and the GOP screwed up (as usual) not supporting Harmer.
A great question. Like any bureaucracy, the purpose of the NRCC is to ensure the continued existence of the NRCC. Don't we get it?
BTTT
I used to think the GOP was screwing up, but there is a definite pattern here & I have come to the inevitable conclusion that it is intentional. The party has been infiltrated by the enemy & we either have to take it back NOW - or bury it like the hot steaming turd it has become.
Sorry to rant on about this.
Frantzie wrote:
Sounds like the CBS poll is trying to depress Repub votes. This may be close and the GOP screwed up (as usual) not supporting Harmer.
Yes, this could be an attempt to depress Republican turnout in CA-10. I doubt it will work. How many Republicans watch SeeBS anyway?
For the GOP, this is beyond a screw up. They have completely destroyed any credibility they have with most conservatives.
You would think that the GOP would stand for stopping the Pelosi/Reid/Obama liberal plans for this country.
But you have an opportunity to flip a “safe Democrat seat” here. That would send a strong message of opposition. Garamendi is in favor of the public option on health care, in favor of the Obama stimulus, in favor of more study and less military action in Afghanistan. Garamendi is Pelosi and Reid. And the GOP could have defeated him (still might, but that is doubtful).
Instead of attacking Garamendi (and the Pelosi/Reid/Obama agenda), they are supporting a candidate in upstate New York who will co-sponsor many parts of the Pelosi-Reid-Obama agenda. How stupid is that?
And the RNC and especially the NRCC have lost a lot of donors over these mistakes. A lot of conservatives are now supporting candidates directly, or through conservative PACs, not through the party committees. I suspect that will continue into the future. It could result in less total funding to conservative candidates. It certainly complicates fund raising for conservative Republicans.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |
was this district a Democratic or GOP?
This is the seat that was held by Ellen Tauscher. She was appointed by Obama to a State Department position, and this is the special election to fill the remaining year of her term.
scooby321 wrote:
was this district a Democratic or GOP?
This district has been in Democrat control since the mid 1990's. In the 1990's it was a competitive district. In 2000, the district was gerrymandered to be a “safe Democrat district.” In 2002, Tauscher won by a 3:1 margin (over 75% for Tauscher, the Dem). Since then, it has usually gone for the Democrat by 2:1 (typically around 66% for the Dem).
A 10 point race here (or closer) represents a big swing toward the Republicans. Opposition to liberal Democrats is growing, even in this “safe Democrat district.”
There are two bad things about this for the GOP. First, they haven’t capitalized on the situation and fought to win in this district. This election is winnable now for a conservative Republican.
Even worse, the Washington “GOP leaders” will probably take this as a lesson that they need a candidate who supports the Obama/Pelosi agenda to win this district. That would be horrible. They need to hold to their principles.
It took big funding from the DCCC, television ads and campaign visits by Bill Clinton and Obama himself to hold this district against Harmer fighting on his own, with no support from the national party. If there had been television ads for Harmer, or big support for him from big name conservatives, I think Harmer would be ahead right now.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |
Early voting is the biggest blow to Democracy ever. Hard enough to keep it legal on one day much less over a period of time. I still can't believe it's constitutional.
This is a pretty solid D district. That said, Garamendi is extremely loathsome, and Harmer is a pretty darn good candidate. Certainly Garamendi is the favorite, and any D would be, but this will be all about turnout, as all special elections are.
So-called "progressives" at work. Infiltration is one of their key tactics.
I think the Dems get compromised RINOs like Graham, McCain, Crist and others to run. They probably have lots of files on them that they can use to blackmail them. The DNC hates people like Sarah, Hoffman and a few others because they have no dirt on them.
You got it exactly right. A lot hinges on turnout and intensity as well as (dis)/satifaction with the status quo.
worst case, harmer loses, aRnie needs to appoint Ray Haynes to the vacant Lt. Gub seat.
Harmer seems to be a great candidate. And this race could have been a big upset.
St. Louis Conservative wrote:
This is a pretty solid D district. That said, Garamendi is extremely loathsome, and Harmer is a pretty darn good candidate. Certainly Garamendi is the favorite, and any D would be, but this will be all about turnout, as all special elections are.
The district historically has gone 2 to 1 (or more) for the Democrats. Garamendi has won more than one statewide elections. This should have been easy. But, after outspending his opponent what will probably be 2 to 1, and getting the support and personal appearances from Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama, he still needed the DCCC to step up with television ads in the final week just to eek out a close win?
It would not have taken much to push Harmer over the top in this race. The NRCC could have spent less than a fifth of what they did in upstate New York, and flipped this seat with Harmer. Instead, they ignored him.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |
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