Posted on 11/03/2009 4:34:01 PM PST by sportutegrl
While press and pundits focus almost ad nauseum on what will happen Tuesday in New York's 23rd Congressional District, as well as the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, everyone has forgotten the battle being waged for the California congressional seat vacated by Ellen Tauscher when she resigned to become a member of President Obama's State Department.
To be sure, the 10th Congressional District of the Golden State is a Democratic stronghold, especially after some recent gerrymandering.
The latest poll shows Democratic candidate and current Lt. Gov. John Garamendi with a commanding 10-point lead over Republican challenger David Harmer, which is certainly not surprising in a district with 18 percent more registered Democrats than Republicans.
But Tuesday's Wall Street Journal opened the door for a possible upset in the making:
Mr. Harmer said internal polling showed him behind by only 2 percentage points. A lower turnout could benefit him, because political scientists say larger electorates tend to be more liberal.
Sure, every candidate's internal polling paints a rosier picture than reality.
However, as the Journal noted, this could all be about turnout, and Republicans are typically quite good at that in off-year elections.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
I'd love to eat my words tomorrow, but I don't think it's likely.
When we went to vote this AM, there were five waiting in line to vote when the polls opened. All were Harmer votes.
One of the precinct workers was a retired freeloader who was very grumpy!
This is a highly Democratic San Francisco district. I doubt that the Republican challenger will win.
No one expects us to win this one, so even if we lose close, we win.
Well here in Ohio, the moon is especially lovely tonight. Never give up.
Are you in the 10th?
Wonder if that million dollars that the GOP gave to scuzzyfavor would have helped?
Okay all you Nattering Nabobs of Negativitism. I’m in a good mood and feeling positive about tonite. Don’t harsh my mellow.
Unless the peninsula falls into the ocean, the Republican challenger does not have a chance.
Its not anywhere near SF (30 miles east) and it is not a liberal district. Many of the dems are conservatives.
I will donate $ 20 to FR if the Republican challenger wins
Tauscher is Contra Costa County, right? That *was* Bill Baker’s seat, he was a Pubbie, and a pretty good one, as I recall- especially by California standards. I still have an appreciative letter that I wrote him, way back when in a box somewhere.
I haven’t been keeping track- that district might have been gerrymandered into oblivion since last time I voted there.
Watch out. It could be RINO.
I think it borders Pelosi’s district.
Stranger things have happened.
Its still a liberal district held by that commie Ellen Tausher
She'll die in office and get a full SEIU escort at her funeral:)
It would have insured victory! - The party didn't give Harmer a cent.
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