Posted on 11/10/2009 2:58:49 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Why it's sane for Kim Jong-il to be crazy
Tue Oct 27, 2009 10:28am EDT
By Andrew Marshall, Asia Political Risk Correspondent - Analysis
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - For those who see North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as a dangerous lunatic prepared to risk the annihilation of his regime by launching a devastating attack on his neighbors, there is no shortage of supporting evidence.
He uses platform shoes and bouffant hair to appear taller. His official media churns out hagiographic tales of his almost superhuman talents -- including the world's greatest round of golf, 38 under par with 5 holes in one. And his stance in nuclear negotiations frequently appears contradictory and confounding.
But for analysts and policymakers trying to gauge the chance of a catastrophic war, game theory offers a crucial insight. In Kim's position, it is perfectly sane to seem mad. And it would be a disaster for him if the world believed he was rational.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
These people continue to scoff at the idea that the best way to deal with Chia Head is not rattled by his antics and remain firm for extended period of time. They snicker and think that they can resolve it with some brilliantly clever intellectual scheme. They think this is like rearranging faces on Rubik's Cube. They are always in search of brilliant intellectual break-through of some kind, endlessly babbling in seminars and journals. They try in vain to 'enlighten' Chia Head and make him see things their way and admit his error. Then they and Chia Head live happily ever after. This feels so much better than long and grim stand-off. However, long and firm stand-off is actually the least bloody solution to this problem. The solution is boringly simple and staring right at them all along, but they can't stand for it. Because it is beneath them. Trying it would cheapen them.
As more books, papers, and reports are crammed into their supposedly intelligent mind, it tends to make this delusion more entrenched.
This is like some liberal social worker trying to redeem a clever ruthless sociopath criminal. She does not have it any other way because it is the only noble way. The sociopath may play along and indulge her, occasionally giving encouraging sign of improvement, only to turn around and slit her throat at the least expected moment. Even while breathing her last breath, she is wondering if she did not try hard enough. Never occurs to her mind that her view is totally wrong. It would never dawn on her even at her death. She let this guy get away and go on slitting more throats of others for fun. The guy knows his score while she does not.
You don't need a game thoery to understand what is going on, although game theory could make it an interesting analytical exercise.
When knowledge is deliberately used to shield oneself from uncomfortable nature of the real world by subtly distorting one's world view and people as a group takes it as a worthy intellectual endeavor, it only creates pseudo religion in the guise of academic theory. It does not help understand the world better, but filters the world selectively and create comfortable bubble in which its adherents can live. A seemingly unending 'adolescent' paradise where one can feel so uplifting and enlightened. Until their throat is cut. It is always more about themselves than reality out there.
For a guy like Chia Head who can maneuver himself around Chicom and Russians, playing with gullible bourgeois imbeciles is just a snap. He can play with us because we allowed him to.
Are you listening Condi and Chris Hill?
Ping!
“But for analysts and policymakers trying to gauge the chance of a catastrophic war, game theory offers a crucial insight. In Kim’s position, it is perfectly sane to seem mad. And it would be a disaster for him if the world believed he was rational.”
Kim or Obama??
Please do not forget Madeline “not so bright” Albright the dancing queen who got completely rolled by chia head.
Well O’s policy on Nukes is pretty confusing as well. Somedays he talks tough, then the next he wants to disarm.
then the next he wants to disarm --> this is his gut speaking.
However, he sort-of understand that he is way above his pay grade on this matter. So he tries not to stick his neck out too far. Because one wrong move on this front can be politically fatal. So his view is mishmash of spoon-fed talking points and his gut feeling.
Yes, that's here, but what about that North Korean guy?
I think the guy is a hard-core liberal, but he is way over his head, and can't get a handle on many critical issues facing U.S.. So he fills the gap with talking points written to him by his minders. Of course, he can veto whatever his minders drew up to address problems at hand, if he does not like it. That is where his gut comes in.
I think the rest of the world sized this guy up a lot quicker than we did. What he says is meaningless, what he signs is what we need to worry about!
I admit, you do start to wonder who are the truly insane-Kim or our foreign policy ‘elite’.
Good question.
How did that work out for Saddam Hussein?
So Kim is the sociopath making up his own rules and we are the hubristic narcissists he is playing for suckers? Works for me. As long as we don’t wind up convincing him that we are so weak that he can just take what he has, up to now, been cajoling us for, I guess we can play this sick game forever. At least, that seems to be the State Department view.
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