Posted on 11/30/2009 7:16:17 PM PST by delacoert
The glib answer to this is to suggest that she'd do the party a great service by not running at all. Yesterday I wrote that she's a "wrecker not a uniter" and that she could hijack the primary season to disastrous effect. That's clearly one possibility. But there are others, including some which might actually help the GOP and not merely by demonstrating the limits of Palinism and, consequently, lancing that particular boil.
Though I think he under-estimates Palin's fund-raising potential, Daniel Larison runs through some of the [reasons?] that make it most unlikely that Palin can actually win the GOP nomination. And as Daniel says, right now the most probable beneficiary of a Palin candidacy is our old friend Shameless Mitt Romney.
Until now Romney has been tacking towards the nationalist base. But Mitt's not very good at phoney populism and it shows. Put Palin in the race, however, and the equation changes: there's no point in Romney going after the type of voters most attracted to Palin (and, to a lesser extent, Mike Huckabee) which, mercifully for him, might spare Romney the embarrassment of trying, once again, to be something he's not. That would give Romney the space, and the motivation, to focus on what he does best: present himself as the problem-solvig technocrat who knows how to get things done.
True, there remains the problem of his Mormonism and his well-earned reputation for flip-floppery but in a field of adolescent midgets (thus far) Romney has the chance to present himself as the only grown-up in the room. Since the GOP, unless it changes the rules, awards delegates on a winner-takes-all basis, Romney only needs a plurality of voters to prevail. When push comes to shove, the Republican party will decide against lobotomising itself.
This, then, presents Romney with the opportunity to run the campaign he should have run in 2004. He's never going to be an exciting candidate and he should probably cease trying to be such. Putting Palin in the race, however, allows Romney to be Romney without having to pander (too much!) or make a fool of himself by trying to persuade the Palinistas that, deep down, he's one of them.
All this may yet change, not least since it's possible that other candidates more exciting than Tim Pawlenty will also join the fray. But in as much as she serves a useful purpose, Palin's presence in the race allows Romney to concentrate on what he does best and, should he win the nomination, escape the primary season without having destroyed the GOP's chances to put up a decent fight in the fall.
As I say, this is all some distance away, but, at least potentially, this is one scenario in which Palin could actually help, not hurt, the Republican party: she would make the eventual nominee look much more respectable than might be the case if he has to spend the primary season wrestling for the Palin constituency. In other words, by providing something to run against, she helps the party become the kind of sensible, pragmatic, problem-focused, grown-up organisation that might actually be worth voting for...
Lawyers and politicians always use the technique of misdirection by accusing the opponant of being guilty of the exact ugliness they themselves are employing. By this I mean that the Romney camp is and will continue to be a "wrecker not a uniter".
Though I had vowed never to vote for McCain, her selection as his running mate made it possible for me to vote Republican in 2007 as I had done in every election since turning 18.
I respect Sarah Palin's political instincts and ideology and hope she is able to change the direction of the GOP back to Reagan Republicanism.
I worry that Sarah Palin's political enemies (i.e., the Romney camp) will be successful in their efforts to misdirect the American electorate by using her to manipulate division within the Republican party. I worry about the GOP too. Though I am a conservative before I am a Republican, old loyalties die hard for me. It is very hard to watch the party be hijacked.
Holy Smokes. A Romeny fan club in the UK?
I’m not worried about Romney so much as I am about Pawlenty. He seems to be the latest focus of media attention and he’s just as liberal as Romney.
Has Gov. Pawlenty reached 1% in any recent polls?
I do agree that it will be hard for her to win the primary.
I put nothing past the backstabbing GOP apparatchiki, and the psychologically umbalanced empty suits who wish to be Caesar.
This fool doesn't even know who run in 2004, with his:
“This, then, presents Romney with the opportunity to run the campaign he should have run in 2004”
Hey Alex Massie, Romney did NOT run in 2004
I sm surprised The Spectator is even still in busines at all. I thought they were dead long ago. They should be.
The UK! A Muslim hell-hole! A bunch of candy-ass drunks who still wear powdered wigs and raise effeminate a-holes like Alex Massie! I repeat, ain’t NO WAY this country will elect a MORMON! Period. A mullato communist??? Sure. But not Romney,...who is by the way, a liberal!!
Gimmee a break. His father did well as governor in Michigan 4 decades ago and his presidential bid was taken down by a statement blown out of proportion by the Lying-Stream Media.
But Mitt is not George. Not even close.
I've worked on campaigns for a local conservative Republican Mormon (surnamed Nixon!) and am not sorry one bit -- though he was turned out from a left-swinging district I'll support him again wherever he runs. Mormonism is NOT an issue.
Mitt's history is.
Interesting analysis....
What Sarah ends up doing for conservatism is up to God as I see it. Nobody knows how this will all shake out. Regardless, she is a MAJOR force for conservatism and that force, properly applied, especially to the “good ole boy” network that has hosed the Republican party, could be very beneficial to a true Reagan-Republican candidate who is A FIGHTER and will go after the horror story we are being forced to live right now.
Romney is not the man. He is not a conservative. And he has too much Massachusetts liberalism all over him — and that stuff sticks with you. It will take someone who is firmly dedicated to returning true conservatism to the platform of the Repub party without worrying about the leftist media or what ANY left-wing liar will try to say.
Palin the Romney slayer!!
Woo hoo!!
Drill, baby, Drill!!
I looked around but couldn’t find out much about this jerk. He’s Scottish, he roots for the “Heart of Midlothian” football team, and he started blogging for the Spectator last January.
Wikipedia is desperately seeking more contributors to his entry.
Maybe he needs to find some other line of work.
I don't see it that way at all.
If Romney couldn't even beat the worst candidate and campiagner in GOP history, John McCain, what makes you think he can beat Sarah Palin? It should't be too hard for Sarah Palin to win the nomination, especially with Huckabee getting hobbled down with his pardons for genocidal cop killers.
*Slick Willard barf alert*
“Heart of Midlothian” team huh?
Sounds like one of the many 2-bit soccer teams in Scotland to me.
In Scotland, the only soccer teams that matter are Rangers and Celtics, both based in Glasgow. Teams like “Midlothian” are just there to make up the numbers.
Appears like the guy is as much of a loser as his team is.
British socialist are so trustworthy and reliable with the advice/analysis they put out about American presidential politics. <rolleyes>
I agree with you... By the way, were there any reports about what Sarah Palin and Billy Graham discussed in their recent meeting. Was so busy with Thanksgiving, I didn’t keep up with all the news.
She will be running against the entirety blue-blood, elitist streak that has tainted the GOP for generations.
Goldwater fought them and failed. Reagan fought them and won, but brought the Trojan horse inside with a certain career political family of liberals New Englanders. See my tag.
I am confidentthat she has the potential to beat them, but she will be in a snake pit dealing with GOP careerists. However, she knows that, and know in many cases knows who.
We shall see.
I agree that Romney is a trifling popcorn fart in the winds of history.
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