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INTRADE Mass. Election Prediction Markets (01/16, 17:35 EST. Coakley down 46.8, Brown up 54)
Intrade ^ | 01/16/2010

Posted on 01/16/2010 2:30:26 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Democratic Party candidate to win Last Price: 46.8 14.2

You can buy this at 46.8

You can sell this at 45.1

-------------------------------------------------

Republican Party candidate to win

Last Price: 54.0 13.0

You can buy this at 54.4

You can sell this at 54.0


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: intrade; ma2010; marthacoakely; massachusetts; scottbrown
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1 posted on 01/16/2010 2:30:30 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Democratic Party candidate to win

Last Price: 46.8
What does this mean?

46.8 means the market predicts there is a 46.8%
chance that this event happens.


Republican Party candidate to win

Last Price: 54.0
What does this mean?

54.0 means the market predicts there is a 54.0%
chance that this event happens.


2 posted on 01/16/2010 2:31:52 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind





3 posted on 01/16/2010 2:33:39 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
Its fluctuating around 52-55% with 54% being the mean. I think that's on target for Tuesday.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

4 posted on 01/16/2010 2:34:23 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Question : How accurate have Intrade’s markets ( where people bet REAL MONEY ) been in predicting past election results ?


5 posted on 01/16/2010 2:38:12 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Wow that really moved. He was at $12 or 27 or something just the other day.


6 posted on 01/16/2010 2:39:41 PM PST by Frantzie (TV - sending Americans towards Islamic serfdom - Cancel TV service NOW)
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To: SeekAndFind
Its been accurate. People can lie to a pollster but they give the game away on whom they bet their money.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

7 posted on 01/16/2010 2:40:09 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Frantzie
Just on Friday he was stuck around 38. Something has happened over the last 24 hours to turn Intrade completely around!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

8 posted on 01/16/2010 2:41:24 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: SeekAndFind

British Bookies are often better than Intrade’s futures markets. The problem is sometimes as you get close to an election the volatility is all over the place.

Bush versus Kerry had him winning but I watched the bookies on election day and it went wild due to the bogus exit polls scam.

If this was a fair and honest election then Brown would win. The fraud and dishonesty could give it Croakley.


9 posted on 01/16/2010 2:45:35 PM PST by Frantzie (TV - sending Americans towards Islamic serfdom - Cancel TV service NOW)
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To: goldstategop

“Just on Friday he was stuck around 38. Something has happened over the last 24 hours to turn Intrade completely around! “

I suppose we can rule out ACORN ;-)


10 posted on 01/16/2010 2:46:34 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops, and vote out the RINO's!)
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To: goldstategop

The MSM began the protect Obama excuse routine. The White House controlled reporters started blaming the loss on Croakley and a bad campaign. A sure tell they have internal data they are in big trouble. Then the propaganda department came up with the “all incumbents are in big trouble” line. These are designed to deflect blame from Obama in the event of a loss.


11 posted on 01/16/2010 2:46:34 PM PST by screaminsunshine (!!three if by government)
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To: screaminsunshine
Expect the MSM to explain it away Wednesday. They're not helping the Democrats by filtering out what's hurting them out there. They've both begun to believe their own propaganda.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

12 posted on 01/16/2010 2:51:21 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Right. But they are laying the groundwork for the excuses now and this is what the handicappers picked up on.


13 posted on 01/16/2010 2:53:34 PM PST by screaminsunshine (!!three if by government)
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To: screaminsunshine
THIS is Ted Kennedys legacy. His healthcare reform AND the State of MA will go down in defeat. Hummm..hummm..humm!

Power to the people!

sw

14 posted on 01/16/2010 2:53:57 PM PST by spectre (Spectre's wife (11/02/10)
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To: Frantzie
Bush versus Kerry had him winning but I watched the bookies on election day and it went wild due to the bogus exit polls scam.

I remembered that very clearly as I was looking at the INTRADE screens every 15 minutes. At 6 PM EST, Bush was actually DOWN and I feared that we were going to have a President John Kerry. That was also the year when John Zogby predicted a Kerry victory ( only to eat crow ).
15 posted on 01/16/2010 2:54:48 PM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

My guess it is a double digit blow out and that why OBozo is going to try to get it back in single digits. If this trading site continues, in 2 days could they be double digit spreads? we shall see.


16 posted on 01/16/2010 2:59:28 PM PST by taildragger (Palin/Mulally 2012)
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Well, there is going to be at least one miracle during this election: 0bama is going to MASS on Sunday.


17 posted on 01/16/2010 3:08:01 PM PST by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spirito Sancto.)
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To: taildragger

Agreed. We’ve got Brown signs all over this little island and not one Coakley sign. I’ve seen two Coakley bumper stickers, both on the cars of two of our leading moonbats.

People I’ve talked to who actually admit to having voted for Obama are telling me that they’re choosing Scott Brown for this election. They’re trying to make their amends, I’m thinking!


18 posted on 01/16/2010 3:28:29 PM PST by islander-11 (Save Nantucket - Vote Republican!!!)
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To: screaminsunshine

they can explain it all they want...Brown isn’t going to give them the 60 they need if he wins


19 posted on 01/16/2010 3:40:01 PM PST by ari-freedom
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To: islander-11
I-11

Oh man you are in the belly of the beast!

As a former Ma resident, wow.... For the way-left of center precieved islands that is amazing. Thanks for the report from the ground.

Someday, if I ever get current and lots of coin in the pocket, landing on both Island Airports is a must do.

20 posted on 01/16/2010 4:04:32 PM PST by taildragger (Palin/Mulally 2012)
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