Democrats' election woes: Expectations crumble as retirements begin to mount

The Hill ^ | January 25, 2010 | Aaron Blake

[CutePuppy]

Democratic election expectations were crumbling Monday after a leading Senate recruit declined to run and another lawmaker announced his retirement.

Rep. Marion Berry’s (D-Ark.) departure and Beau Biden’s (D) decision not to pursue the upper chamber came after Democrats said they expected the opposite. And now the party, which has said it doesn’t expect lots of retirements, is facing the possibility of several more.

It is the latest bad news for Democrats in a cycle with a growing number of open seats and candidates bowing out. Berry became the sixth House Democrat to retire from politics, and all of those seats appear to be GOP pickup opportunities.

Republicans also have a list of Democratic members they’re encouraging to step down, including Reps. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), John Spratt (D-S.C.),

Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa), Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), Rick Boucher (D-Va.) and Baron Hill (D-Ind.), among others.

But unless these and several other Democrats decide to leave, it will be tough for Republicans to win the 41 seats they need to regain the majority in the House.

Republicans will be favored to win Berry’s district, which went 59-38 for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008.

As for the Delaware Senate seat, Republican Rep. Mike Castle, a former governor, remains popular in the state and raised a solid $1.1 million in the fourth quarter.

Republicans seized on the Democratic setback Monday.

“As we saw in Massachusetts last week, voters clearly stated that these seats belong to the people — not to either political party or dynasty,” said Colin Reed, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

Democrats had fought back against reports in recent days that Berry and Biden were eyeing the exits, but within a day or two, each made it official.

The party faced a similar situation with Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.), who also said prior to his retirement that he expected to run for reelection.

Berry, 67, didn’t yet face a top opponent, and he cited health concerns in his announcement. But he also alluded to the same political difficulties mentioned by Rep. Vic Snyder (D-Ark.) in his retirement announcement earlier this month.

Berry told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette that Democratic leaders and President Barack Obama are forcing Blue Dogs like him to take too many tough votes. He said he’s been urging them not to repeat the sins of 1994, when Democrats were blindsided by the tough environment.

“I’ve been doing that with this White House, and they just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all,” Berry said. “They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was, you’ve got me.’ We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”

Biden, the vice president’s son, said his decision had nothing to do with politics, but it’s pretty apparent that his task against Castle was getting more and more difficult. That became particularly clear after fellow Attorney General Martha Coakley’s (D) loss to Sen.-elect Scott Brown (R) in last week’s special election for a Massachusetts Senate seat.

Biden instead cited an all-consuming prosecution his office is faced with, involving a pediatrician accused of molesting children who were his patients. He said later that he hadn’t even factored Coakley’s loss into his decisionmaking process.

Whatever the cause, Biden’s decision leaves Castle as a strong favorite to reach the upper chamber.

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[ more at http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/77955-dem-midterm-woes?tmpl=component&print=1 ]

[Mamzelle]

re: Bill Clinton's approval rating January 1994, 55%. Barack Obama's approval rating January 2010, 48%.)))

Bill Clinton won by a plurality, something like 48%. Obama won by 53%. Even with HCR, Bill improved. So add another three or four points to the difference between them.

Obama makes me appreciate Clinton's better features. Clinton was a swindler, but he didn't seem to have the active disdain for America that O does.

[Mamzelle]

Oh, they can’t sit on their hands. Better to give a tepid, bored little patter. More insult, there.

[hsalaw]

Biden instead cited an all-consuming prosecution his office is faced with, involving a pediatrician accused of molesting children who were his patients. He said later that he hadn’t even factored Coakley’s loss into his decisionmaking process.

He sounds just as mindless as his father. Sad.

[fortheDeclaration]

Castle is probably the best we can hope from Del.

We are least regaining some strength in the Northeast.

[CutePuppy]

That might need some kind of rehearsal and/or coordination; I would try a simpler way first, see the reaction of TOTUS to the “sound gap”.

But then, whatever works.

[Retired COB]

Kerry, Frank, Durbin, Boxer, the list is endless.

McCain, Graham, Snow, the list is indeed endless.