Posted on 03/25/2010 2:15:45 PM PDT by arthurus
One of the things that many people go through their entire lives without ever realizing is that conditions haven't always been the way they remember them to be. Due to the length of a typical lifetime and the number of those years that individuals are productive, it's reasonable to think that someone in their mid-60s could retire today and look back at the last 40 years only to conclude that what they just experienced was normal.
But, what if the last 40 years were anything but normal?
What if, in the world of finance and economics, it was all just a big bubble?
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Nonsense. Real, substantial, measurable wealth was created. What is changed is the people in power in this country are intent on bringing that power to bear to destroy that wealth.
Then, in 1913, we established the Federal Reserve, the Income Tax, and the popular election of senators. The federal government thereafter absorbed all the money, sapped much of the freedom and creativity of society, and gave the mob whatever the mob clamored for.
The 20th century was a lost century. Close-up, to the people living it, I suppose it looked good. But the reality is that we did a whole host of things wrong.
And so far, it looks like the 21st century will "fix" the problems by making it all 100x worse.
Those Freepers who think that the economy was ticking along smoothly until the Democrats got Congress in 2006 would be well advised to read it.
Well, a good reason for the huge surge in the U.S. economy was the ending of World War II, we were the only major player that was almost untouched by the war. Germany, France, Italy, Russia, Japan and to a lesser extend but still significant, the UK were pounded into rubble. This helped us to be “king of the hill.” The Cold War helped us to stay there against a rival USSR. I would say that our most prosperous time was from 1945 to 200x with 1950 to about 1980 as our true “golden years.” Before that, you had things that were common like “multigeneration households,” only rich kids going to college (or you really had to work hsrd) and so on. I think we are headed that way again.
That would mean that a bubble is pretty much all I’ve ever known being 49yo. That is a scary thought.
I would give up a whole lot of that “real, measurable wealth” to return America’s debt-to-income ratio (both personal and governmental) to what it was in 1960.
That was a "once in a national lifetime" golden age, and it ain't coming back.
Fine... but the author is talking about a 40-year timeframe -- 1970-2010.
I think it's pretty clear by now that our society is pretty well sunk into decadence at the moment -- you can point to entertainment, of course, but also the basis of our economy, which has moved significantly away from primary production and into "service" modes; and we're in a house built on a foundation of debt.
If one were to look back at when American decadence really began ... when would you really draw the line? That's I'd put it right about 1965-70 -- attitudes, government reach, economic movement ... it pretty much started then.
So that part, at least, fits pretty well.
You really believe that no real wealth has been created since 1960?
Pretty much. And actually, the American 20th century was entirely an abboration in the history of the world.
There was also the fact that at one time we had 80% of the world’s GDP and not even 10% of the world’s population. Americans really have been spoiled this last century when you think about it.
In the history of most great world societies, none of them have been set up whereby someone who was merely average in the end could get to the top of the ladder by just hard work and a little luck alone. You always had to be talented in some kind of way. America lost that in the last century. I think we are returning back to some kind of normalcy. For good or bad.
And yet someone with an 8th-grade education back then was more educated than a lot of folks with college degrees today.
Maybe things haven't changed all that much after all.
Of course it has. But we've given up a lot in turn. Things we have given up..
An economy in which most moms can afford to stay home to nurture their kids.
An economy in which stable, long term investments, which at least keep ahead of inflation, are available to all. (I can just barely remember passbook accounts at five percent!)
An economy in which financial firms exercise prudence in making loans and maintaining reserves, rather than demanding that the government cover their bad bets.
If families were content to live the lifestyle of 1960 then for most people one income would be sufficient.
As were the British in their day. And the Romans in theirs.
A fair point. I’ll concede one of three.
“Nonsense. Real, substantial, measurable wealth was created. What is changed is the people in power in this country are intent on bringing that power to bear to destroy that wealth.”
I’m just curious, not challenging. What exactly do you consider real wealth? The more you look into the question, the more elusive it becomes. Changing market conditions, personal whims, and depreciation render virtually all measurable wealth quite vulnerable. Under ordinary circumstances, this makes little difference, since there is usually a certain stability. But under less ordinary circumstances, this becomes extremely important.
These principles are true for both individuals and countries. Wealth is always vulnerable, and can prove temporary. Good examples abound, but Argentina of last century is an almost perfect one.
It is quite possible that most of what we built up over the last 40 years will have very little future value. Not because we lose it, but just because its value was always temporary.
What do you guys foresee? You both seem knowledgeable. I am worried about inflation, the Debt, the Chinese, the HCB, even a collapse of the economy. I am not much of an economist. I’m just a simple schoolteacher in his 50’s who has worked hard to own a home, like most people. I have 50% equity in it, but have blue-chip stock which I can sell to pay it off. Or do I keep it in the market? I also have a lesser sum in a stupidly-purchased (1989) whole-life insurance policy which I could sell off (but it seems like safer money I ought to keep). I don’t know what to do. Is the sky falling?
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