Retail Sales Surge At Twice Expected Rate -- Stocks Still Heading Lower

The Business Insider ^ | 5-14-2010 | Joe Weisenthal

[blam]

Retail Sales Surge At Twice Expected Rate -- Stocks Still Heading Lower

Joe Weisenthal
May. 14, 2010, 8:35 AM

Americans sure love to spend money.

April retail sales jumped 0.4% in April, which was twice the .2% analysts were looking for. Stocks are still shooting. Dow futures are off 87.

Here's the full release.

[snip]

[Vermont Lt]

I run my own business. I simply ran out of stuff that was on the shelves, and had to buy more to replenish. I am sure I am not alone.

[bert]

I would argue that comparing ‘10 to ‘09 is lazy journalism. It is shallow.

To be meaningful the comparison should be made to ‘08 or possibly ‘07.

[blam]

European Shares Slip On Economic Growth Concerns

[o_zarkman44]

But the key is, what are people buying? Chinese imports?

What are people buying that creates American jobs beyond shipping and retail? Sales are up a little, but where is the money ending up at?

[rockinqsranch]

“...I simply ran out of stuff that was on the shelves, and had to buy more to replenish. I am sure I am not alone.”

For a couple of months now the National Truckload Carrier my wife is a CSR for (32 year employee of...) has been booked, and are refitting, retrofitting, removing from mothballs equipment to get it on the road to move the abundance of freight needing to be moved out there. It’s crazy.

We believe, and have discussed in depth your situation that businesses have run out of merchandise, and are restocking. It is our opinion this surge is a short lived one.

[mlocher]

This is consistent with 290K jobs being created.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Unexpectedly exceeding expectations??

[mlocher]

It is our opinion this surge is a short lived one.

I agree with your opinion that things are going to get worse. I would not characterize this perturbation in the data as a surge. This uptick is in the noise and it has yet to be shown that it is a positive trend.

[Zeddicus]

With Federal personal income tax revenue in April down 20% from last year, there is NO WAY there is any kind of real "recovery" going on here - I don't care what the retail sales figures say. People are either spending a bit more money that they don't have (debt), or they're spending the money they should otherwise be paying on their soon-to-be-foreclosed mortgages.

Does anyone think we're going to come out of this unscathed when Europe and their currency goes boom, which would appear to be imminent any day now? This is going to clobber what's left of high tech in the USA, which has become largely dependent on European sales.

The entire world is bankrupt, and this era of western-world big government socialism is about to come to hideous and bloody end.

[Freddd]

Just weeks ago we read, ‘retail sales being reported as being up, will be due to INFLATION, going forward’....

[Niteranger68]

Food, water, ammo.....

[bgill]

But the key is, what are people buying?

That's the question. I suspect people were getting their tax refunds and were spending those on things they thought they needed while they had money in their pockets. Were people spending willy nilly or restocking? Also, there was Spring Break and Easter when more dollars are spent. Summer is coming and people will continue to spend their way into deeper debt but the Hussein administration will claim their accolades.

[blam]

Something is happening:

Dry Bulk Shippers Continuing to Rally as Baltic Dry Index Up 8% This Week

May 12, 2010 2:53 PM EDT

"Stocks in the dry bulk shipping sector are continuing higher today as the closely-watched Baltic Dry Index is now approaching the 3,900 level, a value the index has not seen since late 2009. The index has surged more than 30% over the last month and about 8% during this week alone."

[jersey117]

The European situation is going to have a bigger impact than the so-called “experts” want to admit. And then there’s this interesting little tid bit - I read yesterday that this bank to going under today (a/k/a FDIC Friday):

Goldman Joins Effort to Rescue Chicago Bank: Report

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37147886

[moose2004]

“or they’re spending the money they should otherwise be paying on their soon-to-be-foreclosed mortgages.”

We have a winner!

[qwertypie]

It could that retailers are loading up in anticipation of a buyer’s splurge that may not continue. Happens all the time. If real incomes stay stagnant, re-fis remain impossible, and stocks just churn instead of advance, then the mini-boom this spring caused by tax refunds and rising stock wealth could sputter.

[LibLieSlayer]

I run two businesses... we are just stocking minimal inventory... everyone wants to drop ship... business is dead... and on top of that I am affected by the oil spill... and I truly hate the media that lies about reality. We are in a depression and they are selling unicorns and skittles.

LLS

[Murp]

food, water, ammo

Add GAS to that. Gas sales zoomed, up 30%. Now there's a real solid growth indicator. Especially since inflation was not factored in and the ADVANCE estimates were based on a SUBSAMPLE of the CENSUS BUREAU'S full retail and food service sample.

[LibLieSlayer]

Roger.

LLS