Posted on 07/16/2010 2:12:26 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
According to one leading expert, the Dow could hit 50,000 by 2015 and 100,000 by 2020. Should you buy? Maybe. But then, another expert says the Dow could lose 90 percent of its value and close below 1,000 by year end. Oh my! Should you sell? What's a wise investor to do?
A wise investor will ignore this nonsense. Wild market predictions aren't investment advice. They're grandstanding by newsletter writers and investment gurus trying to grab media attention. Sometimes I wonder if the self-proclaimed market experts who make these predictions do double duty as supermarket tabloid headline writers and come up with such gems as "Space Alien Plot to Destroy Earth Uncovered in Crashed UFO!" and "Bigfoot Impregnates 110-Year-Old Woman!"
Can the Dow go to 50,000 or 1,000 over the next few years? Sure, anything's possible, it's just not probable. The gurus who make these predictions would be more shocked than anyone if their outrageous price level predictions for the Dow actually happened. So how does this stuff pass for investment advice?
You may think that newsletter writers should be responsible for their recommendations just like investment advisors who actually manage money. But that's not what the U.S. Supreme Court says. In 1985 the court ruled that investment newsletters were journalistic articles, not investment advice.
Since the newsletter advice is take-it-or-leave-it, the writers making predictions and recommendations have no legal responsibility if you lose money based on what they publish. They are exempt from the Investment Advisors Act of 1940 and not subject to any Securities and Exchange Commission regulations. Newsletter writers can print what they want, predict what they want, change history as they wish and make up whatever returns they wish to claim. It's all perfectly legal.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
One of the author’s favorite research sites on the Internet is CXO Advisory Group.
Its “gurus” analysis is a refreshing reminder of doubtful forecasting. The firm has been tracking the market guesses of 60 gurus over the years, and has accumulated nearly 5,000 predictions.
What was the accuracy of the market predictions gathered by CXO? The average correct guru prediction rate was 48%, which is less than flipping a coin. Only one-third of the gurus had track records better than 50%, and it’s not predictable how long those top gurus will keep their winning streaks going.
Truth be told, market predictions aren’t about the markets; they’re about marketing. By predicting markets, the gurus provide the illusion of skill and knowledge, and that brings attention to whatever service they’re selling. This is especially true if a guru makes an outrageous market prediction that actually comes true. People tend to remember the one big call and overlook a guru’s dismal long-term track record.
See this website :
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
The stock market and the economy will not recover so long as a flaming socialist/marxist illegal occupies the Oval Office and flaming socialists control Congress.
Winner.
Well, yes....when the dollar equals 1/100th of a Euro.....
KABOOM!!!
One possible scenario is the Dow hitting 100,000 while losing 3/4 of its value.
More likely than gold $20,000 an ounce
Tort reform with “loser pays” should be added to your list as well as reducing the power of the EPA and OSHA.
Hey, the Germans used bushel baskets to haul their Marks around.. WHOO..HOO.. HaPPy Days are here again!
Just like the one guy each year who accidentally guesses all the correct outcomes for March Madness.
There's lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.
... and if Monica Bellucci would fall madly in love with me then I wouldn’t care about any of the rest.
Hear hear. Most people would see only the big number in their account statement and shrug their shoulders that it doesn’t translate into enough money for that nice cruise vacation. I myself think that this is one aspect of the ongoing situation.
President Jimmy Carter: Good evening. On Tuesday, we Americans will have the opportunity to exercise our role as citizens in a free democracy. Yet, only a third of the eligible voters will actually cast ballots. The other two-thirds are, in a sense, very lucky. Because they do not know what's going on.
Last week, I delivered a message on inflation. Since then, the dollar has dropped in value, the stock market has sustained record losses, and the whole sow price index increased 0.9%. In other words, our economic system is screwed, blued and tatooed! We just have to face the fact that there is simply no way to fight inflation in a capitolly-intensive, highly-technological, conflict-riddled, anything-for-a-thrill world of today. That's why, tonight, I want you to try to look for in inflation, an entirely new word: Inflation is our friend.
For example, consider this: in the year 2000, if current trends continue, the average blue-collar annual wage in this country will be $568,000. Think what this inflated world of the future will mean - most Americans will be millionaires. Everyone will feel like a bigshot. Wouldn't you like to own a $4,000 suit, and smoke a $75 cigar, drive a $600,000 car? I know I would! But what about people on fixed incomes? They have always been the true victims of inflation. That's why I will present to Congress the "Inflation Maintenance Program", whereby the U.S. Treasury will make up any inflation-caused losses to direct tax rebates to the public in cash. Then you may say, "Won't that cost a lot of money? Won't that increase the deficit?" Sure it will! But so what? We'll just print more money! We have the papers, we have the mints.. I can just call up the Bureau of Engraving and say, "Hi! This is Jimmy. Roll out some of them twenties! Print up a couple thousand sheets of those Century Notes!" Sure, all these dollars will cause even more inflation, but who cares? Everyone will be a millionaire!
In my speech last week, I said that America would have to undergo an austerity program, but since this revolutionary new approach welcomes inflation, our economy will be free to grow, and we can spend, spend, spend! I believe the watchwords for the 80's should be "Let's Party!" And in that spirit, I'd like to say, "Live, from New York, it's Saturday Night!"
“Bigfoot Impregnates 110-Year-Old Woman!”
Lol...
110-Year-old Woman after the event...
You’re such a savage! (While lighting cigarette)
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Thank You!!!!
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