It all depends upon what bar you set for a tsunami, but I am basically in your camp.
I could see 75 seats switch to the Republicans and as many as 8 Senate seats. The Republicans will take over the state houses of nearly 3/4 of the US population.
Many Republicans will be disappointed when the Republicans don’t take control of the Senate. What has gone without saying, though, is that the Dems owe their 60-seat advantage to blood baths in 2006 and 2008. The 2004 elections were actually quite kind to the Republicans, and for this reason there is only so much progress that Republicans can make in this cycle vis-a-vis the Senate.
But if the Republicans can take 8 Senate seats, grab one defecting Democrat, and get Lieberman to caucus with them, then the future becomes bright once again — for the simple reason that in the next two cycles (2012 and 2014) there will be so so so many vulnerable Dems up for re-election.
And with so many Republican governors, the prospects for both redistricting and elections for the next decade look ever brighter.
American voters made a breathtakingly serious mistake in 2008. They will unwind it with a vengeance!
Excellent analysis of the Senate prospects. 2012 and 2014 are the years we can take complete control of the Senate.