Well Gov. Palin may have three winner in the three primary states mentioned. It would put those three in one h*ll of a position if they didn’t help Gov. Palin.
If you break it down even more I think Gov. Palin will have two allies in Iowa, one in NH and two in SC. That is a pretty good foundation to work from.
The other thing is the primary format may be different this time around with propotional voting for the first few states. Then they head West and Gov. Palin is rather strong out there.
If Palin wins NH somehow, the race is over before we even get to SC; but I don't think it's likely. Recent polls had her finishing second in NH, though, which would be a nightmare scenario for Romney going into SC.
If Palin wins SC, she will become a 60/40 favorite to beat Mitt. FL will be truly up-for-grabs at that point, and Mitt will have to suffer through huge wins for Palin in TX and most of the South. He'll see some trickle from UT and maybe MI and WI, but a SC win will be a big stepping-stone for Palin. It will be hard for Mitt to overcome.
That being said, Mitt will have two die-hard allies in SC in Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint, plus he's trying to romance Nikki Haley into at least staying neutral.
I give the nomination odds like this for now:
Mitt: 50% chance,
Palin 40% chance,
Other 10% chance.