Penn. Senate: Democrat Joe Sestak 46% Republican Pat Toomey 45% (Partisan PPP strikes again...)

Hot Air Pundit ^ | 10/19/2010 | Hot Air Pundit

[Qbert]

Sestak supposedly has closed the gap with Independents but I'll believe it when I see it on November 2nd

publicpolicypolling:

You can put Pennsylvania Senate back in the toss up category. Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 46-45 in our newest poll of the race, erasing the 9 point deficit he had in an August PPP survey.

Toomey's support has remained stagnant over the last 2 months while Sestak's has gone up 10 points from 36% to 46%. There are three main factors driving the increased competitiveness of the race:

-Democratic voters are getting more engaged as election day moves closer. Barack Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points in 2008 but our August survey in the state found those planning to vote in November had actually supported John McCain by a point in 2008, suggesting a massive drop off in Democratic turnout. Now those saying they will vote next month supported Obama by 4 points in 2008. The enthusiasm gap is still there but it's not as severe a problem for Democrats as it was 2 months ago.

-Sestak has wiped out what was an enormous deficit with independents. In August Toomey led 50-27 with them. He hasn't really lost any support with them but Sestak has picked up most of the undecided ones and now trails only 49-48 with that voter group. Most Democratic candidates across the country are down double digits with independents so for Sestak to be running even with them is a good sign for him.

[Qbert]

With an increasingly worsening economy and dimming prospects for Dems, Joe Sestak wiped out a 9 point deficit out of nowhere...Okey-dokey there, Tom Jensen.

[GoMonster]

This polling has a higher Democrat turnout then in 2006 compared to republicans. They have been so far off on soo many picks including doug hoffman in NY. We will see.

[Academiadotorg]

So is Arlen at 9?

[DarthVader]

Ras still has Toomey at +10%. Who do you believe?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/state/pennsylvania

[tflabo]

That this race is even close is a testament to the dreadful amount of lunkheads out there who vote from their poop holes.

[Qbert]

“This polling has a higher Democrat turnout then in 2006 compared to republicans. They have been so far off on soo many picks including doug hoffman in NY. We will see.”

Good points.

Btw, Rasmussen just a few days ago showed Toomey with a ten-point lead:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2607522/posts

[Michael Barnes]

There is a terrible mentality in PA of voting Dem "'cause that's how they always voted" or my favorite "'cause my Dad voted that way"..

The local media are shills and for the most part, people are spoon fed from KDKA..

[nbenyo]

Anyone who knows Pennsylvania, knows that Toomey would not win by more than 5 points.

This will be a close one.

[tflabo]

Then again remember that the only poll that counts is the final one on election night results.

[Sgt_Schultze]

C'mon. That is based on results published on October 14. OCTOBER 14!! That's a lifetime ago.
Sestak could have made up that microscopic margin easily. ;-)

[maxwellsmart_agent]

What is a PPP Survey?

[Nonstatist]

Sestak has wiped out what was an enormous deficit with independents. In August Toomey led 50-27 with them. He hasn't really lost any support with them but Sestak has picked up most of the undecided ones and now trails only 49-48 with that voter group. Most Democratic candidates across the country are down double digits with independents so for Sestak to be running even with them is a good sign for him.

This stat is the most unbelievable one of all. IMO, a totally made up number.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

The DOJ has already giving the green light for massive fraud on an unprecedented scale. Toomey’s going to need every bit of that 10% margin to overcome Philly and squeak out a win.

[maxwellsmart_agent]

I didn’t know what PPP was. I found their web site. You don’t need to tell me now. It is evident in just a minute on their web site.

[Paul8148]

With Republicans outpacing dems by 8% points via absteene ballots requested, I take this number with a gain of salt.

[Russ]

The Democrats are telling voters that a vote for Toomey is a vote to return to the failed policies of the Bush years. I guess they would rather vote for Sestak and stay with the failed policies of the Obama years. Afterall, Sestak voted for stimulus, Tarp, Cap and Trade and every other spending bill that passed the House. I can’t believe the voters of Pa. will not hold him accountable. That’s why I believe he will lose by a wide margin.

[andy58-in-nh]

PPP is a Democrat polling firm. Internals reveal:

Democrat ...................................................... 48%
Republican..................................................... 41%
Independent/Other.......................................... 11%

That's roughly a turnout model for 2008, not this year.

[RU88]

“The DOJ has already giving the green light for massive fraud on an unprecedented scale. Toomey’s going to need every bit of that 10% margin to overcome Philly and squeak out a win.”

This has been my biggest concern from the start. Year after year Philly continues to lose residents and gain voters to the point that some election districts within the city limits sport over 100% voter participation! The fraud is rampant and pervasive and nothing is done about it because of those doing are now part of a protected class. If the DOJ wouldn't lift a finger to go after the thugs from the New Black Panther Party do you honestly believe they have any integrity left?

[wac3rd]

The liberals are at a breaking point, they have no ethics.

Time to flush the Commies.

Ignore the Lib polling.