Posted on 10/20/2010 6:56:26 AM PDT by WebFocus
Strange things seem to be underfoot here in Pennsylvania. After a week of optimistic rhetoric from Joe Sestak’s campaign about “closing the gap” — according to internal polling — and generating enthusiasm to squelch Pat Toomey’s senate bid, a new Public Policy Polling survey seems to confirm their optimism.
The PPP poll, out today, shows Joe Sestak leading Pat Toomey by one point. Leading, 46-45 percent, after months of running as many as ten points behind according to Rasmussen and others.
This troubling news comes on the heels of optimistic talk from the AFL-CIO about the power of union members to close ranks and boost Sestak on Election Day, and news out yesterday that Sestak actually has more cash on hand than Toomey, despite being consistently out-fundraised.
Is Pat Toomey losing Pennsylvania?
As Jim Geraghty explained at The Campaign Spot, the PPP survey puts Sestak ahead only by playing with the numbers:
The sample in the last poll in Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling before today: 46 percent Democrat, 44 percent Republican, 9 percent independent/other.
The sample in the new poll in Pennsylvania from Public Policy Polling from today: 48 percent Democrat, 41 percent Republican, 11 percent independent/other.
And Real Clear Politics still has Toomey ahead by a 6.3 percent average, even with today’s PPP poll included.
Nachama Soloveichik, communications director for the Toomey campaign, spoke with Battle ‘10 about the numbers, — both polling and fundraising — and the state of the campaign.
“We’ve outraised Sestak every single quarter,” said Soloveichik, “and I’m confident in these final days, we’ll outraise him again. We’ve been on-air since July, and have had a chance to communicate with a lot more people than Sestak has.”
“The environment is in our favor,” a tired but assertive Soloveichik told Battle ‘10, and while “some Democrats will come home at the end, there’s still a tremendous amount of dissatisfaction with the economy.”
Soloveichik told Battle ‘10 she would find it hard to beieve that a “majority of voters” in Pennsylvania would opt for Joe Sestak’s “bailouts and deficits” over Pat Toomey’s “small government and jobs” platform.
In the context of an unemployment rate hovering at 10 percent, and an undercurrent of enthusiasm for more conservative Republican candidates across the nation, it’s a challenge to justify the PPP assumption — inherent in its latest poll — that more Democrats will turn out on Election Day 2010 than they did during the year of Obama in 2008.
Battle ‘10 has also learned that absentee ballot requests are favoring Republicans by at least an eight point margin, indicating that the much ballyhooed enthusiasm gap will be a reality as votes are counted.
Despite indications on both sides of the aisle, though, there’s little doubt Pat Toomey could use all the support he can get. This is still Pennsylvania, and Democrats still outnumber Republicans by more than one million.
if money is an issue - and I’m not sure it is in this cycle - but if it is, watch the Club for Growth dollars POUR into this race and thus seal the victory for Toomey!!!!
PPP is a VERY left-slanted organization (Quinnipiac may be the only large pollster that’s worse). One outlier poll does not a panic make.
Go door to door and expose the RATs 24/7!!!!
Look for fraud everywhere; RATs cam’t win otherwise.
I suspect they are laying the foundation for massive vote fraud. Remember, “Fast Eddie” Rendell is the governor.
The internals and assumptions of turnout are extremely out of line with every other survey. Garbage in Garbage out, the survey is not valid and its’ only purpose seems to be to try to rally the libs into thinking that this is still a winnable contest.
Yes, I *believe* PPP was put together my MoveOn.org
Don’t know. The lying rats have been playing that ad about taking Social Security away. Some elderly people believe that kind of stuff. Those people on that ad should be ashamed of themselves.
Sometimes I think these skewed polls are an attempt to pull money away from other close races.
PPP is owned by the Daily KOmmies.
So they changed their polling formula from 46 D, 44 R to 48 D and 41 R.
Just so they can make it look like Sestak has a lot of new support and momentum.
so typical of the left.
If Dems are coming home, then why isn’t this being reflected in the Corbett-Onorato race? Corbett’s been up by an average of 10% in Oct. polling, according to RCP. Ras puts Toomey up by 10 as well. That seems consistent to me.
PA Dem voters (unions, cities) would vote straight ticket. They aren’t going to vote Corbett for Gov., then Sestak for Sen.
I’m going with Toomey and Corbett both up by about 10.
ping
Democrats and their allies will bogus up polls so that despair does not suppress the turnout. You will see it all over, especially since the Real Clear Politics average of polls has become something cited by News organizations. They can affect the average with a tricked up poll.
It will work against them. We are already enegized and if we see a close race, the conservative movement will pick up the slack. They can poll all they want, it’s who shows up on Nov.2 that matters. These polls are merely wishful thinking on their part.
Keep in mind that PPP is a Daily Kos/Democrat outfit.
Don’t be surprised if, in the last few weeks of the election, they suddenly start using their “news generating” capability to try to swing races to the Dems.
This article doesn’t even mention the new Muhlenberg poll that came out yesterday showing Sestak with a 3pt lead over Toomey.
I hope so
RE: Muhlenberg poll that came out yesterday showing Sestak with a 3pt lead over Toomey.
So, you’re saying that with PPP and Muhlengberg, the trend is going in favor of Sestak? What the heck did Toomey do for such a sudden turn of events?
The conservative movement should have “picked up the slack” already...if it hasn’t then we don’t have the numbers it’s going to take. There shouldn’t be any slack left......
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