As much as I hate to say it, I think Sean will lose. Being under 40% at this point, with a double-digit deficit is just a little too much to overcome. The Enthusiasm Factor may be good for about three points (like the Homefield Advantage in the NFL). But, we must not overrate it.
The good news is that Sean is now perfectly positioned to take Fwank out the next time around. He needs to stay in the game, do the rubber chicken circuit, network in Washington, and lather up the high dollar donors over the next two years.
My prediction: if Sean does the above and polls strongly in early to mid 2012, Fwank will decide to retire and enjoy life as an atrophied, old queen.
All depends on how redistricting goes. MA will probably lose 1 seat as a result of the 2010 census. Depending on how this race and MA-10, which was looking good until earlier this week when Perry was blasted with bad publicity about a bust gone bad when he was a cop, it's hard to know what the districts will look like.
The real question is if the GOP gets the majority, will Barney want to weather the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac investigations? Does he want his ex-lover called up to testify before a congressional committee? He may retire suddenly just because he doesn’t want to be a powerless back bencher.
There may be a special election before 2012.
But I am hopeful the Sean can pull it out. Remember the polls did not give Brown a shot either until the day before the election.
He might, but generally midterm elections are high water marks for challengers to incumbents. In a Presidential election year, especially the way 2012 is shaping up, the dynamic is very different. This is the year the 'Pubs have to do well, because whoever doesn't win this time around will probably be looking at a much tougher environment in 2012.
The Massholes in Bawney's district just make this one of those places where an established and entrenched 'Rat like Fwank are that much harder to dig out. There are just places like that, where the 'Rat seemingly has the seat for life if they want it. MD is that way, too. Look how long that old hag Mikulski has been hanging around. She'll probably die in office, the old bat.