Posted on 10/22/2010 3:25:53 PM PDT by freespirited
The campaigns of Mike McIntyre and Ilario Pantano both said Thursday they are encouraged by early voting numbers across the 7th Congressional District.
As of late Wednesday, about a week into the early voting period, nearly 27,000 votes had been cast in the district, which includes all or parts of 10 Southeastern North Carolina counties. That’s about 6 percent of the registered voters.
Which boxes were checked on those early ballots, of course, won’t be known until late in the day Nov. 2. The early voting numbers offer a glimpse into voter trends in the dynamic race between the incumbent Democrat McIntyre and his Republican challenger Pantano. But interviews with political observers and the candidates’ campaigns prove only one thing: With 11 days remaining before Election Day, it’s anyone’s race.
While more Democrats have cast ballots in the district, a larger percentage of registered Republicans have hit the polls early.
In the first week of early voting, 11,190 Democrats cast ballots, roughly 5 percent of the district’s registered Democrats. And 10,601 Republicans voted early, about 8 percent of registered Republicans.
The numbers come from The Civitas Institute, which is tracking early voting trends statewide.
Also, 5,057 unaffiliated voters have voted early, fewer than 5 percent of those voters.
While Democrats make up about 49 percent of registered voters in the district, they make up about 42 percent of early voters. Republicans make up 28 percent of district voters, but they constitute 39 percent of early voters.
Andy Yates, Pantano’s campaign manager, said he considered the early numbers “very good for us.”
Historically, he said, Democrats have far outvoted Republicans in early voting, while GOP voters have made up ground on Election Day.
He also pointed out that Democrats have a significant edge in voter registration and typically make up about 50 percent of the voters who cast ballots in the district.
“This year, that is just not happening,” Yates said.
Jason Burke, a spokesman for McIntyre’s campaign, said Democratic voters are “holding strong” in early voting and seem to be getting more engaged as Election Day nears.
It would be easy, he said, to worry about the possibility of low Democratic turnout in a year when the political momentum nationwide favors Republicans and challengers to incumbents.
“We should be in absolute panic mode right now,” Burke said. “But thankfully, we haven’t had that problem, so we’ve been pretty encouraged.”
But just counting Democratic and Republican votes doesn’t paint a true picture in a district that has 98,000 more registered Democrats but has leaned Republican in the past couple presidential elections.
Both campaigns said they expect to get a significant number of crossover and unaffiliated votes.
Roger Lowery, a professor and chair of the Department of Public and International Affairs at the University of North Carolina Wilmington, said both campaigns are probably right.
“This is going to be an election with a lot of crossover voting,” he said.
Burke said the incumbent congressman has always had support from a wide range of voters. In his past re-election bids, McIntyre has typically garnered 70 percent or more of the total votes.
“Mike’s an interesting case,” Burke said. “His whole career he gets votes from such a wide demographical and ideological base.”
Frank Williams, chairman of the 7th Congressional District Republican Party, he believes Pantano is in “very good shape,” in part because unaffiliated voters appear to be leaning to the right in 2010.
“This year, independent voters are coming back to the Republican Party,” he said.
Williams said the GOP is “light years ahead” of where it has been in the past in early voting. Democrats have always pushed early voting, while Republicans haven’t until more recently.
“We learned a lesson two years ago in terms of how important it is,” he said.
Both campaigns will use the early voting data to hone their strategies and deploy resources during the final days before Election Day.
“You make adjustments right up until the polls are closed,” Burke said.
Early voting continues through Oct. 30. The election is Nov. 2.
No way in hell are RATS encouraged by these numbers.
McIntyre should not be encouraged by his own party turning up at the polls because a large portion Dems are crossing over to vote their own guys out.
No the Democrats can’t be happy with the early voting, it is going strong for the GOP, far in excess to 2008.
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