Posted on 10/27/2010 7:56:04 AM PDT by blam
China Running Out Of Farmland: What This Means For U.S. Stocks
by: Greyson S. Colvin
October 27, 2010
As the Chinese growth engine continues to propel forward, the government is faced with the dilemma: How do we feed our growing and developing population? China’s middle class is expected to double over the next 10 years and will demand a higher protein diet. China has roughly 20% of the world’s population although only 7% of the world’s arable land.
The big problem is that China’s farmland has disappeared at an alarming rate and the country may no longer be able to self-produce its food supply. Between 1997 and 2007, roughly 755,000 hectares were lost each year to development, erosion, and desertification. Farmland that is lost to development or erosion is difficult to recover and put back into crop production.
In order to be self-sufficient in grain production, the Chinese government estimates they need to maintain 120 million hectares for crop production until 2020. Government figures estimate that the current amount of arable land is roughly 122 million hectares, which has been unchanged since 2005.
In order to prevent the loss of arable farmland, the Chinese government is strictly controlling the conversion of arable land for commercial purposes. In 2007, the government introduced a nationwide land regulatory system to maintain the arable farmland. Nine land inspection bodies were set up to supervise land use and management by local governments, which often approve illegal investment projects despite central macro-control policies.
The Chinese government is doing all it can to protect farmland resources, but it may be too late. Bank of America estimates that China’s arable land has already fallen below the 120 million hectare threshold and could decrease to 117 million hectares by 2015. Urban sprawl, desertification, and illegal commercial conversion are the culprits of the reduction in farmland according to Bank of America.
Signs are pointing to Bank of America’s estimates being correct. China announced this summer they will no longer be self-sufficient in corn production and will rely on imports. The U.S. Grains Council estimates that China will import 15 million tons of corn in 2014 and Bank of America estimates 17.4 million tons of corn imports by 2015.
How will China feed its growing population if it is not self-sufficient in grain production? They will have to use imports to make up for the production shortfall. The first place they will turn to is the U.S., which is the world’s largest corn exporter, accounting for 60% of global corn exports in 2009.
Chinese imports will have a substantial effect on U.S. ending grain stocks over the next few years. Keep close attention to export data as exports will be driving grain prices over the next few years.
I wonder this: If China owns so much of our debt, will they start buying up farm land(s) here? Will or can this be promoted/promised by our government? I saw a few nights ago on FOX that other countries are securing our water for their own so I guess anything is possible. Just a thought?
What with Globull Warming and all we could grow rice in Kansas and Nebraska..........
If I were going to seek new areas for food production, where would I go? Zimbabwe? Ethiopia? Somalia? Darfur?
That is what I was thinking - Chinese farms and ranches in in Africa.
Time for Africa to be re-colonized.
And Africans are really gonna miss the West when they find out about the new bosses.
Sorry, but I think this is part of the BS global warming, fear-mongering crowd
In 1995, another pathetic Socialist-Enviromentalist named Lester Brown wrote a shrill book titled “Who Will Feed China?” about (of course) how China has maxed out grain production and China and the world will begin to see massive food shortages.
What happened? In the 10 years afterwards, China raised is grain production by 40%, to the point where it even was forced to export surplus stocks of corn for 5 years running.
Lake Baikal has 20% of the WORLD’s freshwater and is just outside China .... grab that and they will be able to irrigate ANY land to make food.
Water and food. Without them you die. Toss energy into the mix, if you don’t have that, you cannot survive as a modern society.
I wouldn’t doubt it all they need is a willing seller and if they’re offering enough farms will change hands.
Wasn’t Rhodesia the breadbasket of Africa? There’s their next conquest and they already have a foot in the door.
Meet the new boss...
Follow the $$$$$, who has most of it? $$$$ talks no one walks. $$$$ buys lots of acreage in Zimbabwe, South America, or anywhere else, including the USA and Russia. Greed ($$$$) knows no bounds.
Well with China population bomb of 30 million extra males Africa is ripe for aggressive China provocations as well as many African tin hat dictators and depots will readily give up land for weapons to continue the slaughter of their fellow Africans
Of course it will still be Bush's fault
Just another thought, the average age of American farmers is 57 so they may be getting to the, I don’t give a darn, age. The work is hard, the stress is worse, the profits, on average, are slim, the farm and machinery costs eat up all the profit and all your money is tied up in them.
I imagine that will take lots and lots of fuel and $$$ to get it from seed to the dinner table in China.
I doubt that Red China has not even begun to exploit the many methods of increasing yields with modern techniques. I don’t like the place, but I hope they can feed their own. They should be able to with the new tools available.
This sounds like BS to me. Anyone know how many corn plants per acre China averages?
Yup...but of course, if we stick it to THEM over grain they way they stick it us US over oil....then, we are arrogant and greedy!
Maybe we ought to be as tough about what we possess as they are about their oil.
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