Posted on 10/27/2010 9:30:02 AM PDT by freespirited
A dramatic reversal of fortune in Virginia's 9th Congressional District, where Republican challenger Morgan Griffith appears to have awoken after 3 months of polling at 40% and today, 7 days until votes are counted, vaults into a tie with incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher, who had been sailing to a 16th term. In a SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, it's Griffith 47%, Boucher 46%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Griffith's lead may or may not be statistically significant; the contest should be reported as even.
Among traditional midterm voters -- those who vote in most or all congressional elections -- Boucher is nominally ahead, by 3 to 5 points. But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1. The relative sizes of these groups will determine the winner. If the uniquely motivated 2010 voters walk-the-ballot-box walk, and don't just talk-the-pollster talk, the Republicans have a chance to snatch the seat. If the uniquely motivated voters aren't so motivated after all, Boucher keeps the seat.
Compared to 4 previous tracking polls, Independents have broken sharply Republican in the campaign's final week. The number of Republicans crossing over to vote for Boucher has steadily decreased, from 26% in July to 18% today. The number of higher-income voters voting for Griffith has steadily increased, from 43% in July to 49% today. Boucher's lead among women has evaporated from a once 23-point advantage. The older the electorate, the better Boucher's chances.
If Boucher hasn’t made it over 50% he’s toast ~ that’s the rule with incumbency ~ gotta’ make it over 50%.
RCP gives repubs 225 seats safe, likely, and leaning. I give them ALL the tossups, add another 32. They are going to get A LOT of the 30 leaning dem, say half. They might even get some leaning dem, say 5. That's a 78 seat gain for the repubs.
I have predicted 80-100 seats for months.
If Boucher doesn’t go, he’ll be one of the only Dems left standing in districts below the Mason-Dixon line.
I’ve been following VA politics a bit more since the big win last year..I’ve noticed that Mark Warner has virtually disappeared from public view..is he hiding out in a bunker somewheres? What’s he sayign, if anything, about his vote for Obamacare? You also have to figure that Allen is gonna take a shot at Webb in 2012..he has a good chance to take him down...unless the whole “macaca” thing would pop up again..any other possible GOP candidates for the senate race?
But: among the group of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, the Republican leads almost 2:1.
Mr. Peepers losing the Virginia Ninth would be HUGE. He’s been Congresscritter for life down in coal country. If the Republican wave could even reach up into the mountains and back into the hollers and knock Boucher out? That’s not a wave, it’s a tsunami.
}:-)4
I’d like to see Gov Bob take on Warner in 2014.
Comments on Post 6?
Just starting to learn about VA politics as it’s going to be my home state in a few years when retired. I do know that Dems had high hopes on higher office for Tom Perriello, but he’s in a tough race this year in VA-05 and could very well lose. GOP candidates Fimian and Rigell look good to me and hopefully they will win.
I would think Bob McDonnell could make a successful bid for Senate, but probably not until he’s finished at least one term as governor. When is Warner up for re-election?
Governors of the Commonwealth of Virginia are restricted to one term. The last Governor to have two non-consecutive terms was Mills Godwin the 60th (Democrat) (1966-1970) and the 62nd (Republican) (1974-1978).
dvwjr
2014 for warner, 2012 for webb.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.