2012 Senate Forecasts—The First Look

self | November 3, 2010 | RobFromGa

[JSDude1]

R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.

: (TEA PARTY)

R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.

:(Definitely TEA PARTY Challenge: I know from the ground here in IN)!

R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.:

(Might be best to keep her in a “Blue” State, dependes on how she votes in the next 2 years)

R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.

: (You’re probably right about Romney, though maybe he should save his ‘ammo’ for John Kerry)

R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.

:(Don’t know about Wicker)

R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.

:(You’re probably right)

R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.

: (v. TEA PARTY)

R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.

: (Definitely Tea Party)

R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.

: (Maybe depends on how he votes in the next 2 years, otherwise TEA PARTY CHALLENGE)

R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.

: (You’re right)

[JSDude1]

Take a seminar from Chris Christie, and stay away from “Arnold”.

[JSDude1]

Lugar is also terrible on foreign policy.

[Bodhi1]

ping

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[sergeantdave]

Cool.

[Corin Stormhands]

D18*) Webb-Virginia. Slighlty vulnerable. He barely won in an upset against the "macaca challenged" Allen in 2006 and GOP should field a strong candidate against him. He is a fairly moderate Dem and having to face reelection in 2012 should keep him from embracing Obama/Reid policies.

Webb is 1) more than slightly vulnerable and 2) less than fairly moderate.

He WILL lose in 2012. IF he runs.

From the VA GOP: Obama and Webb Are Next

[conservativebuckeye]

I hope you’re right about Jim Jordan running against Sherrod Brown. He’s a solid conservative. My ultimate fear is that DeWine will be the nominee. He said last night that his first act as Attorney General will be to sue over Obamacare. That strikes me as posturing for a run at his old seat in two years. Other possibilities I’ve thought of are Secretary of State-elect Jon Husted and Lt. Gov elect Mary Taylor. I’d prefer Jordan to those two, but their better than DeWine.

[conservativebuckeye]

I need to proofread before I post. they’re instead of their.

[Crichton]

I hope you’re right about Jim Jordan running against Sherrod Brown. He’s a solid conservative.

I was just reading off the record quotes about Jordan planning to run. Sounds like he's a candidates conservatives and the establishment can agree on.

[Dave W]

Don't be so hasty about Scott Brown. Brown is the most popular politician in Massachusetts. I agreed with you when he was elected that it was a fluke and he would be booted out in 2012, but they can't find anyone yet to run against him. They are begging Teddy's widow to run...yes, they are. The Dems have to exploit the name as much as they can.

However, I am shocked that they like him in Mass and has a good chance of winning a six year term. So, I was expecting a bit more yesterday in Mass. Perhaps one congressional district - the one on Cape Cod that was an open seat. Change takes time.

[Minus_The_Bear]

Michael Williams vs. Kay Bailey Hutchison in 2012!

Mr. Williams is a true conservative and was slated to run for the Senate this year until KBH decided to come back to Washington... after saying she would retire...

[MitchellC]

Thanks for the ping. Very interesting write-up.

As big a question of who we should pull for to face Dem incumbents, is which Republicans we should primary.

But first, a whole lot of people on our side need to realize that it isn’t worth it to blow an election against a 100% liberal, just because we wanted to run _any_ 100% conservative even though they are drastically less likely than a particular 95% conservative candidate to win. (I’m of course talking about Angle and Lowden - Castle/Chafee/Jeffords/Hagel types are worth picking off even if it means losing.)

Re: Snowe, for tactical reasons I’m not sure we should primary her. Perhaps what we ought to do is run an independent against her in the general. Similar to the LePage race, with Snowe and the Dem splitting the center-left vote - it’s probably the only real way to get a real conservative to win there.

Lugar and Hatch absolutely need to be primaried, just because we can do so much better in those states. Chaffetz (sp) against Hatch, perhaps. Williams should run in TX, regardless of whether or not Hutchinson goes back on her word.

[kevslisababy]

Yep, she has got to be one of the dumbest to serve in the senate.

[Jeff Head]

Great analysis Rob. I believe the GOP will pick up a net of another 7 or 8 in 2012. That’s put the GOP at 55. I hope it is so.

Depending on what Obama does and how upset the American people are at him, and who the GOP fields...that number could go higher 2-3 seats (meaning a 58-42 majority) or lower 2-3 seats (meaning at worst, a 52-48, the 48 including the two independents).

I pray to God that the incoming GOP House hammers Obama over and over again over health care, taxes, spending, foreign policy, etc., etc. and forces him to veto the very things the people sent the GOP majority there to accomplish. They should not let up, they should not compromise on these issues. If they will do that, then we will maximize the gains in 2012 and hold the Presidency, a huge majority on the House, and the Senate...but this time with a different breed of individuals who will actually turn a lot of the leftist liberal agenda back.

[ken5050]

Lugar will be 80..he should retire..

[ken5050]

Given what happened in Maine on Tiesday, I suspect that your two senators will suddenly start becoming far more... well, “conservative” and won’t be giving Mitch too much trouble..

[AuH2ORepublican]

It might be too soon for Allen West, just elected to public office for the first time, to run for the U.S. Senate in as large a state as FL. Fortunately, the FL GOP has a deep bench. My top choices to take on Bill Nelson would be incoming Lt. Gov. (and current state rep) Jennifer Carroll, incoming Agriculture Commissioner (and current Congressman) Adam Putnam, and former Gov. Jeb Bush. I hope that RINOish Congressman Connie Mack doesn’t run, but if its between him and a gadfly I’d go with Mack (who, while annoying, has a fairly good voting record).

[Crichton]

Little Connie Mack would be a bad candidate. He's a joke and would have no shot against Nelson.

Tom Gallagher might be an option. Too soon for Putnam imo. Maybe Carroll... but she just got in. Maybe Jeb.

[colorado tanker]

Great analysis!

I think an awful lot depends on how these 2012 Dems play their votes the next two years. Barry and Harry sounded defiant yesterday - no compromise, stay the course. I have a feeling a lot of these people who you identify as vulnerable will go wobbly and stop voting the Obama line. That is, assuming they have the stomach to stay in the game and run again. We could see a lot of them retire.