Posted on 11/03/2010 6:12:42 PM PDT by RobFromGa
2012 Senate Forecasts—The First Look
Dateline: Day after election 2010
By: RobFromGa
Since the 2010 Senate races are now almost all decided (only WA and AK remain), it is time to look forward to the 2012 Senate Races where the Dems are going to have a tough slate to defend.
The Dems need to defend 21 seats to only 10 for the GOP (there are two independents as well-- Lieberman and Sanders who both caucus with the Dems so the Dem caucus is actually defending 23 to only 10 for the GOP)
Some history about the 2006 Midterms for those of you who may have blocked this from your memory…
Midterms 2006 was a strong cycle for the Dems and everything fell into place for them on election day where they won almost every close Senate race. These seats won in 2006 will have to be defended in 2012 in a completely different political climate*:
1) 2006 was a Midterm so no Presidential “coat-tails” came into play.
2) Bush was very unpopular in 2006 and Iraq War fatigue was peaking.
3) GOP didn’t field strong candidates in some races.
4) Mainstream media had more power than they have now.
*The 2012 political climate is, of course, impossible to predict. Two years is an eternity-just ask Obama or Nancy Pelosi how things can change.
Since 2012 is a Presidential election year, the top-of-the ticket nominees will have quite a bit of impact on many Senate races and turnout. It is impossible to predict the future this far in advance, but I am assuming that the American electorate will still be interested in economic growth policies that will lead to jobs, and not so interested in increasing the size and scope of the Federal government.
The 21 Dem seats in play in 2012 (alpha by state) :
D1) Feinstein-California. Probably safe. By their 2010 votes, CA has shown they are happy with the current situation. Maybe Feinstein will retire and the GOP would have a better chance against an open seat.
D2) Carper-Delaware. Safe, Delaware is likely a lost cause for a real GOP candidate, and we don't need a RINO...
D3**) Nelson-Florida. Very vulnerable. GOP should get a pickup here with a good candidate.
D4) Akaka-Hawaii. Safe. He's getting pretty old and will be 88 in 2012. Perhaps he will retire but Dems should be able to hold an open seat. Unless retired Gov. Lingle decides to run which would make this race competitive.
D5*) Cardin-Maryland. Slightly vulnerable. It's a blue state but maybe could be won with the right candidate (Steele or Ehrlich?)
D6**) Stabenow-Michigan. Very vulnerable. Put up a good candidate and she is gone. Great pickup opportunity.
D7*) Klobuchar-Minnesota. Slightly vulnerable against the right candidate. Could be Coleman's seat if he wants to work for it.
D8**) McCaskill-Missouri. Very vulnerable. She beat Talent by a nose in 2006 and she will lose to a qualified candidate in 2012. Word is Talent may want a rematch.
D9**) Tester-Montana. Very vulnerable. He barely won in 2006 and he will face a strong challenger in a Red State.
D10**) Nelson-Nebraska. Very vunerable, almost certain GOP pickup.
D11*) Menendez-New Jersey. Slightly vulnerable. Chris Christie has provided a model for victory. we need a solid candidate. (Kean lost in a squeaker last time). With a good candidate this could become Very vulnerable in a hurry.
D12) Bingaman-New Mexico. Probably safe. He's been in since 1982 so perhaps he'll look at retirement. The GOP has a better chance in an open seat.
D13) Gillibrand- New York. Probably safe, the GOP can't seem to do anything right in New York.
D14*) Conrad-North Dakota. Slightly vulnerable. He supported Obamacare which is universally hated in that red state. GOP needs a strong small government candidate though.
D15**) Brown-Ohio. Very vulnerable. Very liberal senator in a state that is not very liberal.
D16**) Casey-Pennsylvania. Very vulnerable. Just hope we can find someone to beat Specter.
D17) Whitehouse-Rhode Island. Safe.
D18*) Webb-Virginia. Slighlty vulnerable. He barely won in an upset against the "macaca challenged" Allen in 2006 and GOP should field a strong candidate against him. He is a fairly moderate Dem and having to face reelection in 2012 should keep him from embracing Obama/Reid policies.
D19*) Cantwell-Washington. Slightly vulnerable. Will Rossi have the desire to try once again?
D20*) Manchin-West Virginia. Slightly vulnerable. 2010 was a special election so only buys Manchin 2 years as Senator. In 2012, Seat will be in play and Manchin will have to remain conservative and steer away from Obama-Reid policies to have a chance for a full term. He could be forced to legislate as he campaigned which will make him essentially an extra GOP Senator these next two years.
D21*) Kohl-Wisconsin. Slightly vulnerable. Who knows? Maybe what happened to Feingold will make him decide to retire...
The 2 Independent seats in play in 2012 :
I1) Lieberman-Conn. Likely safe for I or D candidate.
I2) Sanders-Vermont. Safe.
The 10 Republican seats in play in 2012 :
R1) Kyl-Arizona. Safe.
R2) Lugar-Indiana. Safe.
R3) Snowe-Maine. Likely Safe. Her biggest threat is a Tea Party primary challenger picking her off like Mike Castle in Delaware, which would almost certainly lose the seat to the Dems. She is one of the more liberal GOP Senators from a very blue state.
R4*) Brown-Massachusetts. Very vulnerable. Should face a strong challenge. Call it 50-50 at this point... I would prefer to see Romney run for this seat, instead of President.
R5) Wicker-Miss. Safe.
R6*) Ensign-Nevada. Slightly vulnerable. Will likely retire but GOP can hold the Open seat.
R7) Corker-Tennessee. Safe.
R8) Hutchinson-Texas. Safe. Hutchinson might retire for Governor run in 2014 but GOP can almost certainly hold the open seat.
R9) Hatch-Utah. Safe.
R10) Barasso-Wyoming. Safe.
So, in a nutshell…
The Dems are defending 21 seats and only 6 of them are what I would consider Safe (CA, DE, , NM, NY, RI).
There are also 7 Very vulnerable (FL, MI, MO, MT, NE, OH, and PA) and 8 Slightly vulnerable seats (MD, MN, NJ, ND, VA, WV, WA, and WI). So, the GOP should be possible to pick up 7-10 seats…
The two Independent seats (VT and CT) are likely to remain D or I and continue to caucus with the Dems.
On the GOP side, we are defending 10 seats and only 2 are vulnerable…
The “Kennedy seat” held by Scott Brown in Mass and the seat that is currently held by by Sen. Ensign in Nevada if he doesn’t retire. Just for sake of argument, let’s say we lose one of these two seats.
Assuming we end up in 2010 with 47 GOP Senators (including AK since Murkowski will caucus with GOP and assuming we lose WA)…
If we pick up 7-10 and lose 1 in 2012, this leaves the GOP with a 53-56 seats majority. To get to 60, GOP would need a net pickup of 13 seats (or 12 if Rossi prevails this time around in WA)… To gain the majority we just need net pickup of 3-4 depending on who is Vice President in 2013. This seems to be almost a sure thing.
And 2014 is another good cycle for the GOP…
Soliciting Freeper comments.
There are likely some errors here, but I went over it and didn't see any more.
Love to hear what people think about these races...
Conrad(ND) is a dead man walking..
Great analysis! Outstanding!
Hopefully Dave Heineman runs against Nelson in Nebraska, Denny Rehberg will finally grow a pair and run against Tester, Cantor may be looking to run against Webb. Another real possibility is Paul Ryan looking at the Senate in 2012 as well.
Webb is more than “slightly” vulvernable. And he’s as “moderate” as a donkey’s cornhole.
It may be too soon but Allen West could run against Bill Nelson.
RINO Lugar needs to go
It requires two things to be made true.
1) GOP has to build it’s base
2) GOP has to do a BETTER JOB of finding, developing and educating solid fiscally conservative candidates.
I don’t have a lot of experience with donkeys so not sure how moderate their cornholes are.
I would expect to see a very moderate Webb the next two years.
I really hope that we can recapture VA. I think Allen was shafted and Webb snuck in.
And I hope we run someone strong against Nelson. He is incompetent.
Great list...thanks. Time to start thinking about taking the senate next time. btw..when is Graham up..4 more years? I was really hoping he’d be up next. I’d like to see a great candidate take him out in the primary.
*
“”Just hope we can find someone to beat Specter.””
I’ve been more wrong today than right but what does this mean?
Many comments.
George Allen is already seeking a rematch against Webb. Expecting to announce any day.
Any combination of Kohl, Feinstein, Bingaman, Lieberman, either Nelson may retire. It is very early.
Corker will be primaried from the right.
Many conservatives want Lugar to retire so that Mike Pence will run for that Senate seat. Pence is also contemplating run for Indiana Governor.
Hatch will be primaried if he doesn’t retire.
Hutchison has already announced her retirement. If she renegs, she will be primaried and lose.
In Minnesota and Wisconsin, the key is to find the rich businessman and lumber-jack kind of guy like Sen-elect Johnson
Carper may retire, but if he does Beau Biden will easily capture the seat. Rumors going around about Carper’s health.
I think Scott Brown may be in better shape than you think. He is genuinely liked. If Romney is the GOP nominee for president, who at this point is our strongest candidate to unite all factions of the GOP, obviously this would help Scott Brown’s chances for re-election.
If you didn’t catch it last night, Russ Feingold in his concession speech all but announced he was running in the Dem primaries for president in 2012.... Trying to preempt Howard Dean.
The potential inflation/collapse of the dollar Glenn is talking about and the potential fiscal calamity or collapse of NY or CA with the choices they made will further wake up or skew people towards fiscal sanity IMHO. Redisrtibutionist Democrats will not fair well. Given Obamacare will be starting to be felt as it starts to kick in those that voted for it still will face the wrath of the electorates. With so many GOP States now with SoS's being R's we may not see what went on in Nevada in terms of tryng to steal it.
This is all wind in our sails....
Great idea.
I’m going to work like hell to get a conservative to run against and beat Lugar.
3.1 Democratic incumbent elections
3.1.1 Dianne Feinstein of California
3.1.2 Tom Carper of Delaware
3.1.3 Bill Nelson of Florida
3.1.4 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
3.1.5 Ben Cardin of Maryland
3.1.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
3.1.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
3.1.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
3.1.9 Jon Tester of Montana
3.1.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
3.1.11 Bob Menendez of New Jersey
3.1.12 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
3.1.13 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
3.1.14 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
3.1.15 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
3.1.16 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
3.1.17 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
3.1.18 Jim Webb of Virginia
3.1.19 Maria Cantwell of Washington
3.1.20 Joe Manchin of West Virginia
3.1.21 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
3.2 Independent incumbent elections
3.2.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
3.2.2 Bernie Sanders of Vermont
3.3 Republican incumbent elections
3.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
3.3.2 Richard Lugar of Indiana
3.3.3 Olympia Snowe of Maine
3.3.4 Scott Brown of Massachusetts
3.3.5 Roger Wicker of Mississippi
3.3.6 John Ensign of Nevada
3.3.7 Bob Corker of Tennessee
3.3.8 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
3.3.9 Orrin Hatch of Utah
3.3.10 John Barrasso of Wyoming
In my daily email to Debbie Stabenow, telling her to repeal “healthcare reform”, I also mentioned that starting next week I will be working on the campaign of the republican opponent who will unseat her.
Don’t actually know who that will be yet, but I have heard several rumors, and I like what I hear.
I also don’t know yet when the campaign work will really start, but then neither does she.
Snowe may very well be removed in 2012 but with Maine going 100% Republican, Governor, Senate and House for the first time since 1962 we should be able to replace the witch without much of a problem.
Agreed. The Democrats are not going to much have luck picking up Red States unless they run Blue Dog candidates. And their base hates them.
We can run conservative candidates in Blue States to lose in nail biter elections. RINOs lose big.
ROLF.
Well they probably smell immoderate.
I really hate Webb, he’s not a quality human being.
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