Posted on 11/05/2010 8:44:14 AM PDT by pillut48
For the first time in two cycles, Democrats will have more seats up for grabs than the Republicans, and the party could see its shrunken majority erased altogether.
Several of the senators up for reelection came in on the 2006 Democratic wave, when the party picked up six GOP seats and won control of the chamber.
Sens. Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Jim Webb (D-Va.) defeated GOP incumbents that year but will have to win reelection in 2012.
And two senators who won special elections Tuesday, Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), will face voters again in two years.
Democrats lost at least six Senate seats Tuesday, with results in Washington and Alaska undetermined as of press time, but they retained control.
That could change in two years, when Democrats have 21 seats up for grabs, compared to only 10 for Republicans. Also up for reelection are Sens. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) and Bernie Sanders (Vt.), the two Independents who caucus with Democrats — meaning the party has a total of 23 seats to defend.
(Excerpt) Read more at nation.foxnews.com ...
McCaskill is going down...she was on the radio on Election Day talking about how complicated insurance matters were, and how we just don’t get it. Keep talking, Claire!
all depends on if the republicans can keep their house in order.
Of those Democrats, if I recall correctly:
1. Webb won in Virginia because George Allen said “macaca” and the media had a meltdown over that.
2. Tester won in Montana by about 2,000 votes; it was a razor thin margin.
3. Casey in PA defeated a demonized Rick Santorum, who was demonized by the liberals and MSM for opposing homosexual marriage, and his saying we’re on a slippery slope to other things if we allow homosexual marriage.
So all three of these are vulnerable right off the bat, in my opinion. Throw into the mix that these Democrats will be running with weak incumbent at the head of the Democrat ticket, and they may be out of the Senate in 2012.
Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.) MAYBE
Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) FLIP
Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) FLIP
Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) DOUBTFUL
Jon Tester (D-Mont.) MAYBE
Jim Webb (D-Va.) DOUBTFUL (they love him here)
Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) DOUBTFUL
Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) SAFE
We might get four out of the eight.
He was and still is popular as a governor, which he successfully parlayed into winning the Senate race. There are a lot of rumors flying around West Virginia that the sh*t is about to hit the fan on various corruption charges about to surface regarding Manchin's administration. And that's why he was so anxious to get out of Dodge.
What about Nelson in FL and NE?
And we face a nightmare until January 2011.
If ObamaCare remains unpopular, and the GOP keep whacking away at it, get it up on a repeal vote twice or so, those Dems that vote against repeal will be toast.
My hunch is, it’s possible to get enough to go along with a veto override to avoid losing their jobs in 2012.
The margin in the Senate is looking like 53-D/I to 47-R for the 112th Congress. If the Republicans pick up four of the eight most vulnerable and hold onto their seats, the Senate in the 213th Congress will be 51-R to 49-D/I and it won’t be Plugs Biden presiding either.
Uh huh. But what happens when Hussein declares BY FIAT, 40 million Mexicans to be Americans and therefore VOTERS??!! And don’t think he won’t get the support of Juan “it’s my last term anyhow so what the hell” McCain, Lindsey Grahamnesty and the rest of the treacherous RINO population.
“If the economy rebounds, President Obama could be credited in the eyes of some voters. If it stays sluggish, voters could blame the GOP.”
Per media: “heads Dems win, tails R’s lose” LOL!
That’s a very big if my FR friend, and people also aren’t taking into account attrition (Juan McCain retiring) and vulnerable pubbies.
Way to soon to project numbers, I thinks, but what the hey, it’s still a game.
Herb Kohl in WI either retires or gets beat.
I did not see Ben Nelson’s name in the article. He’s up in 2012, as well. He will be the first to go.
Plus there are some RINO’s up in 2012. They will go, as well.
Here is my list of targets:
Bill Nelson of Florida: FLIP
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan: FLIP
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: MAYBE
Claire McCaskill of Missouri: FLIP
Jon Tester of Montana: FLIP/MAYBE
Bob Menendez of New Jersey: FLIP/MAYBE
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico: FLIP/MAYBE
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: FLIP if Guliani/Pataki, otherwise NO CHANCE
Kent Conrad of North Dakota: FLIP
Sherrod Brown of Ohio: FLIP
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania: FLIP/MAYBE
Jim Webb of Virginia: FLIP
Joe Manchin of West Virginia: MAYBE (if votes for ObamaCare)
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin: MAYBE/FLIP
We have to defend MAINE (Snowe), MA (Brown), Nevada (Ensign).
I think realistic goal is flipping about 10 seats (more likely 7). This assumes big GOP wave and winning the White House. I’m worried about MA and PA. Sestak was close and it was mid-terms (less urban voters).
I can’t see us winning 15 seats (required for OC repeal).
“all depends on if the republicans can keep their house in order.”
Amen. We can’t have any Mark Foley’s texting boy pages so it can be blown up in the media right before an election as they did in ‘06. Everyone better be told by the leadership to live a life as close to the holiness of Jesus as mortals can get, because the msm will be watching for ANYTHING to hang them with.
Conrad in North Dakota. He is toast
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