...Castle would have lost....
Castle was ahead of the Dem in all polling. He almost certainly would have won. He is definitely a RINO. Even so, the GOP cant control the Senate without a majority. DE, NV, and CO were sure things that were lost.
That's dishonest, and you know it. Polls taken weeks before the election must be given less weight than exit polls taken on the day of the election. So based on the best available evidence, Castle would have lost. There is no other intellectually honest way to call it.