Another FReeper (sorry, I can’t remember who) stated, at least a month ago, that Obama wouldn’t run in 2012 because an individual state would pass a law requiring that each candidate must submit his or her long-form birth certificate in order to get on the ballot.
My recollection is that this person predicted that Arizona would be the state to do it, but I could be wrong.
Arizona legislature already passed the measure but the governor refused to sign.