Horowitz has some good points here. It is true that political parties have births and deaths, although each of the two major parties have moved either right or left and soaked up the “third parties” that arise out of protest. Our history has at least two examples of major parties dying. And the deaths lingered over several years. The First great party, The Federalists, died after the ascension of Thomas Jefferson. But it lingered on for awhile in the Northeast. The same is true of the Whigs. It died but continued for a bit in the border states (KY, TN, parts of IL and Ohio).
I would think that it is more likely, however, that the traditional Republican party will die if they do not deliver on their conservative promises!