Well, just take a gander at what's sitting in the Whitehouse...
Posted on 11/26/2010 7:29:40 AM PST by jhpigott
“China would have it’s hands full trying to keep a few million starving Nork refugees from fleeing into China.”
LOL! That is PRECISELY why they would move troops into N and S Korea and the excuse they would use to the UN! They would say it was to prevent the exodus of millions of N & S Koreans (mostly NK) fleeing the inevitable that precipitated their troop movements!
Well, just take a gander at what's sitting in the Whitehouse...
The Chinese wouldn’t move into South Korea. It simply isn’t in the Chinese leadership’s best interest to return to a protracted war on the Korean peninsula at a time when they have a burgeoning economy to sustain or risk internal revolt from the rapidly rising Chinese middle class. On top of that, you know, it’s not exactly easy to drive a tank from China to South Korea. China doesn’t have the same projection capabilities that the USA has. Have you ever looked at a topo map of North Korea? There is virtually no infrastructure aside from a few very vulnerable rail lines and there is some mighty rugged country to cross before you get to the DMZ, all while trying to pacify a few million starving people. You’re making a lot of assumptions about China’s reaction without looking at what they would actually have to deal with to invade. The USA and South Korea have the upper hand here. It’s just a matter of having the guts to play the game.
I think China will inevitably align with South Korea. Both have an interested in making the North Korea problem go away.
For China, North Korea has outlived its usefulness to her. China would for the long-term, rather try to forge an alliance with the South Koreans, and in return, hope a united Korea, under control of the South, would move towards the Chinese Sphere of Influence.
So, the reality is obscure or at best murky.
The best course remains careful caution until the old man (my age) kicks the bucket. When that happens, no one knows for sure what will take place.
It would seem the definition of North Korea may not actually be known and certainly not the same as six months ago
Disclaimer...... I look extremely healthy compared to him
Bingo! I forget the actual figures, but I recall reading a while back that China has to produce something like 25 million jobs per month to keep their economy growing. If they were to enter into a war over North Korea it would be devastating to their economy and would likely spark an internal revolt that the regime probably wouldn't survive (and they know it). This ain't 1950.......
Why drive when you can airdrop:
Chinese paratroopers trained to fight in all conditions
( 2003-12-12 00:23) (Xinhua)
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) paratroopers have conducted intensive training over the past few years, in order to be able to attack the enemy in different climatic and geographic conditions.
The PLA paratroopers boast the lowest accident rate in the world, in terms of military maneuvers, according to sources with the Air Force Headquarters.
All members of the PLA Paratroop + whether privates or generals, first-aid staff, cooks or telephonists + are capable of performing all kinds of combat skills necessary for paratroopers.
Meanwhile, logistic units have also been trained in different ways to coordinate with paratroopers, so as to provide efficient logistical assistance to the latter in combat.
The PLA Paratroop was set up in September 1950. It has been developed into a powerful modern army, comprising infantry, artillery, telecommunications and engineering units, the sources said.
This guy is our ambassador? We're screwed.
So the Army is not responding to civilian control eh?
We had better hope that the NorK Military doesn’t decide that it is in their best interests to end the Kim Dynasty and install one of their own that looks out for the interests of the Military. Some of the Senior military leaders probably served under Kim Il Sung, and don’t like the idea of serving under the Old Man’s 27 year old C- student of a Grandson.
Central to this problem is the fact that the worst nightmare the Chinese have is a total collapse of the NorK Government, and the subsequent wave of 23 million desperate starving North Korean civilians trying to escape into China. The Chinese Government may well end up supporting whomever can guarantee there will be no flood of refugees.
On the other hand, the NorK’s professional military is not anxious to try and defend their conventionally armed forces from the ravages of the US Navy, US Air Force, Japanese Defense Forces and anyone else who joins the fray in response to another stupid stunt by either Kim.
Very touchy situation still, and the shooting could start again at any moment.
You are projecting onto the Chinese people themselves an inordinate amount of “wordly goodwill” they don’t have, never have had, and never will have.
They aren’t exactly a bunch of San Francisco ex Hippies growing flowers in their gardens you know.
If the Chinese people believe it benefits them in the long run; the Chinese people will support virtually any military excusion. Take a look at their history.
Did it ever occur to Ambassador Hill that the Kims not being able to work their will with the North Korean military might be a good thing? Kim Jong-il is desperate to maintain his family’s dictatorial control. He might do something really stupid in order to further that end. He already did a stupid thing with regard to this artillery barrage. It seems clear that Kim wanted the barrage, and the military carried it out.
Once again, the State Department is clueless about how to further this country’s, and the World’s, interests. Let the North Korean military thumb their nose at Kim. That may be the best way to get rid of him and his son.
By the way, where’s Hillary? I see the Obama Administration still has her under wraps.
It is very important to remember that China is benefiting greatly from South Korea. There is very active trade between the two. Like Hong Kong, South Korea is more valuable functioning than shackled and bound.
“Clinton-albright”
You mentioned Albright? And North Korea?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h3GPc_yMCE
Confront.
Okay, lets say they did drop troops in. How many? Do they have the capability to drop in enough troops to quell a million man Nork army with gross uncertainty as to who they are loyal to? With that, they have to combat highly trained American and South Korean troops and deal with several million starving refugees. They also have to be able to establish a supply chain capable of supporting all those troops with no infrastructure. All with air drops? With 2-3 US Carrier battle groups in positions where they could be surrounding the Korean peninsula and having total air superiority from, oh, say D+ 72 hours? Explain to me how those airdrops would work again? And, why is it that China would expend so much treasure over North Korea, a country lost in time that long ago lost its usefulness to China and has essentially become a thorn in their side?
BINGO! And, one of the many reasons why China won't invade.....
All is lost.
No, they aren't, but they aren't fools, either.
Take a look at their history.
The problem with history with China is China is a much, much different country than it was just 40 years ago. Capitalism has been introduced. A middle class has developed. War on the Korean peninsula would shake the foundation of their economy, all over what? North Korea?
You greatly overestimate the value of North Korea to the Chinese and greatly underestimate the value of their wonderful new trading partner, South Korea. Ultimately, China will side with the South. Watch and see. As always, follow the money.....and the Chicoms, who are seeing wealth flow into their country like never before in their 6000 year history, like money just as much as anyone else.....
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