Reason for Optimism: It's A Self-Sustaining Recovery (Consumers buying more, productivity strong)

Forbes ^ | 11/30/2010 | Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein

[SeekAndFind]

In the four months between June and October, retail sales surged 10.2% at an annual rate and are up 7.3% over the past 12 months. Still, consumers get no respect from the majority of analysts and economists, who during the summer and early fall, could not stop talking about a double-dip recession.

But instead of going wobbly, consumers seem to be standing strong. ComScore ( SCOR - news - people ) says online sales vs. last year were up 28% on Thanksgiving Day, 9% on Black Friday and 13% so far in November. Coremetrics, another online data gatherer, reports sales from Thanksgiving Day through Saturday are up 14%. The National Retail Federation reported 8.7% more people visited stores this year vs. last year and the average shopper spent 6.4% more than a year ago.

The only report that was "remotely negative" came from ShopperTrak (and its network of 70,000 U.S. malls): Sales were up 0.3% vs. a year ago. However, the ShopperTrak data have a weakness--free-standing big box stores are not classified as malls. Clearly, this could lead to underestimating sales.

Meanwhile, more data are coming this week. Car and light-truck sales probably totaled more than 12 million at an annual rate for the second month in a row--the fastest pace since September 2008, except for during "cash for clunkers."

This is not just "pent-up demand." Nor is it a "new normal." The surge in consumer spending has its roots in improving fundamentals. Private-sector wages and salaries are up 4% in the past year and small-business income is up 5.8%. Productivity is boosting incomes for workers and companies.

In addition, the jobs picture is steadily getting brighter, with private sector payrolls up an average of 106,000 per month over the past six months.

[SeekAndFind]

More here :

http://alhambrainvestments.com/blog/2010/11/28/weekly-economic-and-market-review-36/

See if you can guess what economy produced the following year over year changes:

•GDP growth rate +56%
•Personal Income +4.35%
•Savings Rate +23.91%
•Fixed Investment +5.37%
•Steel Output +10.32%
•Business Sales +8.86%
•Durable Goods Sales +12.2%
•Factory Shipments +7.21%
•Retail Store Sales +7.31%
•Factory Orders +17.18%
•Exports +12.58%

You wouldn’t know it from all the doom, gloom and fretting of the last few months, but this fairly impressive list of economic statistics describes - partially - the US economy over the last year

[surfer]

unbelievable...it is consumers buying temporary happiness because they all know in their gut the economic abyss is proximate. Most families feel this will probably be the last positive Christmas for a few years to come.

[SeekAndFind]

The guys at Forbes believe that we too often minimize how far we have come from the depths of what was a pretty horrific recession.

That isn’t to say that we couldn’t have done better; They absolutely think our economic performance would be better than it is if we hadn’t taken a two year detour into wasteful stimulus spending and the regulatory uncertainty of health care reform. But as the statistics above show pretty clearly, things are getting better and we all have much for which to be thankful this year.

[surfer]

Hope is not a strategy. The real numbers are clear. Why are you falling for indicators that are coming from an ever changing formula base? Instead of using facts they are using an acturial approach to all of this to derive numbers they want because Bernanke actually believes a propped stock market produces more wealth - it all has to collapse and it will.

History is absolutely clear on this.

[Freddd]

up 9% !...anything above zero is up compared to the last Obama year.

[sport]

Bullshit!

[surfer]

The guys behind the article have direct ties to the Keynesians destroying our economy currently.

They are writing these piece for their own personal gain or are part of the propoganda machine currently in action.

Nearly every indicator regarding the markets, economy, etc are completely false.

There are major global factors that are going to crush our economy in the next couple of year and more. They have a belief you spend your way to recovery when history is pretty clear you need to produce your way to recovery hence how many wars are actually welcomed during phases like this.

Forgetting the global impact...just the housing market correction is going to hammer our economy to utter destruction in the upcoming years. Adjusted for inflation since the Civil War our median housing price has always settled around $100k currently it is around $195-$200k and it will end up around $100k before it settles down and of course it has to dip below $100k as it strives for equilibrium.

Take a close look at the current housing market data...inventory is approach an all time high, sales are falling rapidly, foreclosures are about to skyrocket and 95% of those mortgages are held by Freddie and Fannie.

This can’t possibly work out well. It will most likely end in global conflict (we are already in WWIII economically).

This model of perception in the market will save the day is just utter nonsense and a fools game.

[blam]

Consumer Confidence Rockets Higher To 54.1

[38special]

Cool, the sheeple are running up their credit card debt.

[Arm_Bears]

Forbes used to be such a good business publication.

[Tublecane]

There isn’t any other kind of recovery but a self-sustaining recovery, by the way. What the heck would be sustaining it, otherwise?

[driftless2]

Just because ten percent of the population is struggling doesn’t mean that the other ninety percent have stopped spending. Obviously, even in a recession, people with jobs will start spending money.

[warchild9]

The print and television media are hyping up the Christmas season to please their advertisers.

Consumers are whipping out the credit cards because they’d paid off some of the balances, and suddenly find there’s “money to spend.”

In reality, nothing’s changed. Around here, there’s still thousands of unemployed and temp workers abound. The unemployed Yankees are still pouring in by the thousands, and we’re still profiting off their spending the last of their life savings while waiting for a “real” job to appear.

Nothing’s changed.

[Fee]

All that sounds great, so when is the consumer and corporations going to take that profit and extra income and use it to pay down our 60 trillion dollar debt (5x US GDP)? More Wall Street BS. Take all that good positive income and subtract our existing debt and debt obligations and you come back to trouble. It is like me claiming that I am financially well off after a salary increase of 10 percent and exclude my looming debts equal to five times my annual income. Steve Forbes and his ilk are the problem with the US. The faster we replace those BS artists with honest and stoic people the better off our country will be.

[JerseyHighlander]

It is counterintuitive, but during the Great Depression restaurants did exceptionally well throughout the entire double dip depression and recession.

Food and consumables are immediate gratification.

[dools0007world]

Amen to that! So, I’m supposed to believe that with over 15% people unemployed the economy is just peachy? I don’t think so.

I guess thst’s why retailers had pre- and post-Black Friday sales. I guess that’s why auto dealers are practically giving away their cars. Oh, and all those non-home sales are actually creating demand for things like lumber, commodes, doors/windows and insulation.

Sheesh.

Apparently, we can add Forbes to the list of Onada propaganda organs.

[Altura Ct.]

Everyone who thinks the economy is in ‘recovery’ needs to invest heavily in real estate and the stock market.

[Paradox]

Those numbers look great because the recession was so terrible. I think there is too much gloom and doom, but on the other hand, statistics, lying, liers, statistics....

[KC_Conspirator]

Good comment.