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Analysis for the Housing Market [Oct:US Median New Home Prices Down 13.9%-Largest 1 month drop ever]
Hanley Wood ^ | Ken Lee

Posted on 12/02/2010 11:33:35 AM PST by SC_Pete

In October, median new home prices plunged to $194,900 from an upwardly revised September figure of $226,300. While revisions for the previous three months show that pricing was firmer than previously expected, October's plunge in new home prices renews concerns about the stability of the new homes market. The 13.9% monthly drop in new home prices last month is the highest on record. Median new home prices are now at their lowest levels since October 2003. Median new home prices are down 9.4% from this time last year and down 8.6% from this time two years ago. This is the sharpest annual decline in new home prices since July 2009.

Despite record-low mortgage rates, new home prices continue to be pressured by weaker demand. Competition from lower-priced existing homes and foreclosures are putting additional pressure on the new homes market. In the current economic environment, buyers are seeking out the best deals and are not willing to spend more than they have to on a home because it remains a buyers' market.

However, weaker prices and record-low mortgage rates have made new homes as affordable as ever and have closed the spread between affordability in the new homes market compared to the existing homes market. Builders have had to cut prices and boost incentives to compete with lower-priced existing homes. Median new home prices do not reflect the use of incentives which would most likely drag the true value of new homes down even further.

**New homes data is subject to large statistical and sampling errors.

Definitions and Importance for the Housing Market By:Ken Lee

Median prices for new home sales are from the U.S. Census Bureau. The data is derived from a survey that is primarily based on a sampling of houses from residential building permits. The median price indicates the mid-point of new home prices; one-half of all new home prices are above and one-half of all new home prices are below the median price. The median price differs in definition from the mean new home price, which is the average of all new home prices. If the average price is higher than the median price, it is an indication that the distribution of home prices is concentrated, or "skewed", towards higher values.

New Homes Sales includes some units whose permits were multifamily. The sample excludes owner-built houses, contractor built houses, units built to be rented, and manufactured housing. Multifamily units are included if the units are side-by-side, have separately metered utilities, include a firewall, and were sold to a buyer.

For more information on median and mean home prices, go to: http://www.census.gov/const/ c25_curr.html http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html/


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: builders; economy; housingprices
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To: perfect_rovian_storm
Existing sales are up 10% according to realtor.com.

As someone who knows definitively what the truth of the matter is, these propagandists can indeed make statistics lie through their teeth.

Lenders are practically requiring the First Born as collateral with tight-@ss qualifications.

Barely four years ago, Mexican illegals were still being issued mortgages.

21 posted on 12/02/2010 12:18:09 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: SC_Pete

I wonder if there is a clear title/deed on a new house and the land it sits on or did they use a derivative contract to finance the project?


22 posted on 12/02/2010 12:19:20 PM PST by Razzz42
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To: SC_Pete
The title you made up

US Median New Home Prices Plunged 13.9% in October: Largest One month Drop in Hostory

was not the title at the published source you linked and it had to be changed to match the published title. Then some time was spent trying to fit in your personal comments from the made-up title into brackets.

We're trying to reduce the number of threads we pull every day.

Please do not alter any published titles and do not make up your own title. Just copy and paste the published title and only if there is room, then add on your personal comments.

Thank you.

23 posted on 12/02/2010 12:19:55 PM PST by Admin Moderator
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To: swarthyguy
For new buyers, this is pretty good.

This is an unmitigated disaster across the board - for new buyers or whomsever. Do you understand the ramifications of a 14% drop in ONE MONTH?

That 10% down payment of a houses closing one month? GONE. ERASED. And then some.

Where is the bottom? No one knows.

24 posted on 12/02/2010 12:23:11 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: smokingfrog
So, do you prefer that we just ignore the terrorists, or should we just go ahead and nuke all the muslim countries now and get back to business as usual?

WHAT "terrorists"?? You mean the ones strip-searched by the TSA at US Airports like Granny? Or just the white ones with their "Bibles and guns" and ex-military who are deemed potential "terrorists" by the 0bama Administration?

Maybe you can explain just why the last two Presidents have dumped thousands upon thousands of Muslim immigrants to the US - including Somali settlements in Maine, Minnesota, and (ahem) Washington state? I'd love to hear it.

I'd also like you to explain to me what our "mission" is in Afghanistan - and why the RoE restrict the military from truly kicking @ss.

On the otherhand, rabid Mexican and S. Americans gangs like MS-13 are moving in and taking over towns while US troops are guarding poppy fields.

Thanks.

25 posted on 12/02/2010 12:33:23 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: SC_Pete

The only markets that were up were Las Vegas and Washington DC. Las Vegas has fallen so far it has only one direction to go.

Washington DC is a specialized housing market for obvious reasons. Glad I’m a homeowner there!


26 posted on 12/02/2010 12:36:37 PM PST by Poundstone (A recent Federal retiree and proud of it!)
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To: SC_Pete
You ain't seen any thing yet when they remove the interest mortgage deduction vast numbers of people will see no reason to buy a home. They will be able to rent at the same price or lower with NO RISK. My guess we will see a 25 to 35% drop in prices due to the lack of demand.
27 posted on 12/02/2010 12:41:45 PM PST by Phyto Chems (Protect the border, NOW. The government needs to do one thing FIRST - CLOSE the Border)
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To: Conservative Tsunami

>>Do you understand the ramifications of a 14% drop in ONE MONTH?

Yes, intensely overpriced housing is now merely overpriced and returning to a level of affordability.

Of course there’s a long way to go, since the Goobers and the Banks are doing everything to keep the values propped up.

Their very policies extend the pain. A slomo rolling crash spread out over years.

When prices were rising no one cared, the frenzy intoxicated the nation. Now DaMotherofAllHangovers.


28 posted on 12/02/2010 12:41:57 PM PST by swarthyguy (KIDS! Deficit, Debt,Taxes! Pfft Lookit the bright side of our legacy -America is almost SmokFrei!)
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To: Conservative Tsunami
This is an unmitigated disaster across the board - for new buyers or whomsever. Do you understand the ramifications of a 14% drop in ONE MONTH? That 10% down payment of a houses closing one month? GONE. ERASED. And then some. Where is the bottom? No one knows.

No. It means that the builders are building smaller, cheaper houses.

29 posted on 12/02/2010 12:43:32 PM PST by SeeSac
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To: SeeSac

Not just smaller, but I would bet that they are building them more basic, too—none of those spa tubs and fancy master suites.


30 posted on 12/02/2010 12:59:09 PM PST by Defiant (There is no line on the march towards marxism that Democrats won't cross. Democrat=CPUSA)
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To: swarthyguy
Intensely overpriced housing is now merely overpriced and returning to a level of affordability.

And what of the millions who bought (now) overpriced homes and watched 50% of their equity dissipated or stolen by deceptive, illegal lending practices?

Demand was artificially and knowingly created by the Banks and our lying, thieving Legislators who insisted on lending trillions to deadbeats, bad risks, and anyone with a pulse.

Millions also took out Home Equity Loans based on grossly-inflated appraisals, never thinking 50% of their equity would be swallowed up.

When prices were rising no one cared, the frenzy intoxicated the nation. Now DaMotherofAllHangovers.

Only folks who stood pat aren't hurt directly by this, although EVERYONE is now affected.

Insider economists, financial analysts, and international Bankers ALL knew this was a scheme from the beginning. This falls directly on the head of them as well as US regulators and the GLOBALISTS.

Who ultimately picked up the tab for what's essentially "Wealth Redistribution? The American Taxpayer - NOT the Banks.

ITMT, jobs and factories are gone to China, $2 billion dollars per day wars with no mission are being waged, 0bama has rammed though a phantom trillion dollar "Stimulus" and 0bamaCare, and house values continue to plummet.

Me? I'm gonna have a beer and watch Oprah in my tighty-whiteys.

31 posted on 12/02/2010 12:59:23 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: SeeSac
It means that the builders are building smaller, cheaper houses.

That STILL aren't selling.

95% of the market is resale anyway.

32 posted on 12/02/2010 1:00:35 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: raisincane

That’s an existing house, though. This report is about new homes. The price drop is large, unless there are other factors involved—like smaller houses with cheaper materials being built.


33 posted on 12/02/2010 1:01:09 PM PST by Defiant (There is no line on the march towards marxism that Democrats won't cross. Democrat=CPUSA)
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To: smokingfrog

Are those new homes only? Vegas and Detroit rising would be good signs of a bottom, and would demonstrate that simply looking at median price of new homes is not a good indicator.


34 posted on 12/02/2010 1:04:05 PM PST by Defiant (There is no line on the march towards marxism that Democrats won't cross. Democrat=CPUSA)
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To: Defiant

It was a bogus industry website that lied... figures came out today refuting everything in that report.

LLS


35 posted on 12/02/2010 1:05:25 PM PST by LibLieSlayer (WOLVERINES!)
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To: Conservative Tsunami

There were many warning voices who were decried as ChickenLittles, Alarmists, etc etc.

Every consumer went into this with their eyes wide shut or open.

People engaged in all sorts of behavior, using home equity for vacations and frivolous gifts. Home flippers were touted as national stars, as if they were actually creating wealth instead of engaging in speculation.

Laissez le bon temps rouleur was the national motto, tomorrow, reality and facts be damned.

The Piper awaits.


36 posted on 12/02/2010 1:08:18 PM PST by swarthyguy (KIDS! Deficit, Debt,Taxes! Pfft Lookit the bright side of our legacy -America is almost SmokFrei!)
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To: Defiant

That was price per sq ft for all home sales - not just new homes.


37 posted on 12/02/2010 1:14:40 PM PST by smokingfrog ( ><{{{{{(0>)
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To: SC_Pete

There was a 2.5 percent rise in private residential construction in October. This is the biggest one-month gain since April.

Builders are probably trying to close out their inventory of unsold homes before the end of the year.


38 posted on 12/02/2010 1:20:40 PM PST by smokingfrog ( ><{{{{{(0>)
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To: swarthyguy
Every consumer went into this with their eyes wide shut or open.

Yes, but that was based upon on consumers assuming the card deck wasn't stacked. IT WAS.

Was the public privy of our multi-trillion dollar debt? Or those supposedly charged with the honest and fair regulation of the banking and mortgage industry of which lies, collusion, and various ethics violations were committed?

People engaged in all sorts of behavior, using home equity for vacations and frivolous gifts. Home flippers were touted as national stars, as if they were actually creating wealth instead of engaging in speculation.

This is all technically true, though historically what's occurred in real estate values has NEVER happened.

However, next time we buy a home or refinance, we should presume the equity today to be no "safer" then at Churchill Downs or with the local bookie.

39 posted on 12/02/2010 1:25:51 PM PST by Conservative Tsunami
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To: Bullish; CJ Wolf; houeto; Quix; B4Ranch; Whenifhow; Silentgypsy; blam; FromLori; Lurker; ...
Obama-creates-record-levels-of-affordable-housing ping.

"Economic Holocaust" ping.

Increasing volume ping list watching the slow motion Economic Holocaust.

FReepmail me if you want on or off
The Comedian's "Economic Holocaust" ping list...


Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

40 posted on 12/02/2010 1:30:57 PM PST by The Comedian (Government: Saving people from freedom since time immemorial.)
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