Romney, Bachmann, Cain Lead The Pack Among GOP Primary Voters

Rasmussen Reports ^ | June 16, 2011 | Rasmussen Reports

[RockinRight]

Well, at least #2 and #3 are someone I could vote for.

[Captain Kirk]

The cell phone argument won’t wash. They control for that.

[ejdrapes]

I don't get it. I know many endorsed Romney in 2008 but I always though that was because he wasn't McCain or Huckabee. I don't know why they'd endorse him now unless they buy the media meme that he's the only ‘electable’ candidate. Although yesterday Laura Ingraham didn't seem to fond of Huntsman, who is really being pushed by the MSM.

[ejdrapes]

It’s not worthless. Those are the declared candidates right now. Let Palin jump in and then include her in polls. Otherwise we might as well include Paul Ryan, Jim DeMint and Marco Rubio in these polls too.

[ejdrapes]

She’s not a declared candidate. The Rasmussen poll was taken after the NH debate and included those who are declared candidates (or in the case of Huntsman will be next week). I’ll consider Palin once she declares and not a minute before. Same with all the others floating out there - Perry, Christie, Ryan, DeMint, etc.

[free me]

It is worthless. Palin is a potential candidate who leads all others in at least 2 polls.

Leaving her out produces results not matched by reality.

[MNJohnnie]

Thank you. I am glad someone kept that on hand for 2012, We are going to see a LOT of threads like this one.

[RockinRight]

Because if Saint Sarah the Wise isn’t on it, its crap.

[MNJohnnie]

Does it really matter whether she is a nasty, backstabbing RomneyBOT without judgment OR an incompetent docile RINO-plaything?

No matter how desperately you sing Sarah's praises, she is STILL not going to date you.

Time people around here start thinking with their heads of a change.

[Polybius]

How the hell does Romney get 31% of primary voters who call themselves conservative?!?

This ain't our Grandpa's America any more.

What we call "conservative" is what the typical 1950's American used to be except that, in regards to a lot of social norms, even we would be considered extremely shocking by 1950's standards. Think about it.

We "conservatives", like the bald eagle, are no longer very common in America. The primary is a "Republican" primary. The question then becomes, "How many Republicans consider themselves conservative?"

Take a glance at Gallup Organization surveys. In 2007, self-identified Republicans were about 28 percent of the mass electorate, ...... Fifty-five percent of Republicans self-identified as "conservative," 26 percent as "moderate," and 13 percent as "very conservative."

The bottom line is that the number of Republicans who want Romney is in the ball park with the number of Republicans who consider themselves "moderate".

The bottom line is that the percentage of all American voters who call themselves "Conservative Republicans" is only 21% of all voters because even 100% of all Republicans constitute a rather small minority of all voters.

Demographically, we conservatives are in deep, deep kim-chee.

Being a "Conservative Republican" does not amount to squat in a general election simply because 79% of all voters do not consider themselves "Conservative Republican". In order to get elected in the general election, a candidate needs far more than, "Look at me. I am Conservative".

"Hi, I am Joe Blow, white guy. I was the CEO Godfather's Pizza. Elect me President of the United States of America."

"Umm .... Yeah .... Sure, Joe ... Whatever you say."

That is the problem with Bachmann and Cain: Most Republicans put them on the Presidential table because they are conservative. Period. The 79% of all other voters consider them Affirmative Action candidates who, with their resume, are on the table simply because one has black skin and the other is a female.

The current GOP field is a disaster: RINO Romney and the Affirmative Action Dwarfs.

We desperately need a strong conservative candidate in the race and, no, Sarah Palin, who 65% of all voters have said they will definitely NOT vote for, is not such a candidate.

Bill Clinton did not announce his first winning candidacy until October of the year before the election. The GOP has until around October of 2011 to attract a strong conservative candidate whose poll numbers are not lower than whale scat at the bottom of the ocean and who can actually defeat Obama.

[rob777]

"I don't get it. I know many endorsed Romney in 2008 but I always though that was because he wasn't McCain or Huckabee. I don't know why they'd endorse him now unless they buy the media meme that he's the only ‘electable’ candidate."


One reason is that Romney is seen as having the best chance of beating Obama. I do not think that all of his polling support is actually pro-Romney, as it is a desperation to beat Obama. If Obama continues to appear vulnerable to defeat in 2012, some of that support may go to candidates who they actually like better. My guess is that this especially accounts for whatever Tea Party support Romney may have.

[CincyRichieRich]

Ok then; Romney’s our man. No need to go further. MSM says he’s it. All polls are scientific, no manipulation. Romney is it.

[Captain Kirk]

You don't need to politicize this argument. The question is whether the mainstream polls are generally accurate. I think they are.

I am not happy about this btw. All of the Ron Paulites constantly used that cell phone argument back in 2008. We said that our support much be much, much higher because so many of us did not have land lines and repeatedly won straw polls and online polls. When people finally went to vote, it turned out that the mainstream polls were pretty much right.

[CincyRichieRich]

You don’t need to politicize this argument. The question is whether the mainstream polls are generally accurate. I think they are.
I am not happy about this btw. All of the Ron Paulites constantly used that cell phone argument back in 2008. We said that our support much be much, much higher because so many of us did not have land lines and repeatedly won straw polls and online polls. When people finally went to vote, it turned out that the mainstream polls were pretty much right.

---

Sorry, I have to respectfully disagree. I have been studying polls for many years and having most organizations controlled and conducted by libs ( I have a BS in Statistics BTW) really influences the results. Ever asked a polster who they are doing it for? I’ve had some hang up on me because I asked too many questions. If you believe them, then their objective in picking our horse is working.

[Palmetto Patriot]

In order to get elected in the general election, a candidate needs far more than, "Look at me. I am Conservative".

The way things are headed, all a candidate needs to say this time around is "Look at me, I'm not Obama."

A similar strategy worked in '08.

[Captain Kirk]

Name one election in the last twenty years (either off year general projections or presidential year projections) in which the mainstream polls picked the wrong winners prior to the election. Certainly, last time they all predicted a GOP big victory in the House and gains, but unlikely takeover, in the Senate.

[CincyRichieRich]

Palin hasn’t entered yet;I am not betting on Romney. Polls this early are just silly. I believe unless you are totally banking on Romney have to concede that point.

[Brookhaven]

Romney and Bachmann are tied among primary voters who say they are Tea Party members, with 26% support each.

Oh....nash teeth....horse hocky!

There is no way that Tea Partiers are supporting a guy that implemented RomneyCare and has come out on the side of global warming. No way!

When I see polls like this--with Romeny in the lead and Bachmann suddenly right up there with him it makes me think there's more to the Bachmann-as-stalking-horse story than just rumors.

[dforest]

This just in. Here is the rest of the poll.

per Rassmussen:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2735760/posts

[Brookhaven]

+1

Fox, Laura Ingam, & Hannity are all Romney supporters—if not overtly, at least softly as they don’t point out the obvious deficiencies in Romney.