You don’t wait for war to buy fighter jets, says Gen. Museveni

One of the new Russian-made jet fighters prepares for a demonstration take-off during President Museveni’s tour.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Gen. Yoweri Museveni, yesterday conceded calls by opposition for the government to give priority to infrastructure and healthcare ahead of military hardware are plausible but said defence cannot wait for war to purchase equipment.

Mr Museveni, who was inspecting the new planes at the airbase in Entebbe, said the delivery of Sukhoi Su-30 multirole fighters was after a long procurement process. He said he travelled to Russia last year to visit the factory that manufactured the newly-acquired fighter jets that cost government Shs1.2 trillion. He equated the long procurement process of the jets to the procedure a buyer goes through before a tailor finally makes clothes.

“In the 1950s, people had two options when walking in a shop to buy clothes; either to buy the available clothes or be measured by the tailor to make new clothes. I travelled to Russia in August last year to be measured and got brand new planes whose fruits are being seen now,” Mr Museveni said.

He acknowledged the calls by the opposition to build roads, schools and hospitals instead of buying military hardware but said military equipment is not procured during war times. “You don’t wait for war to buy military equipment in security. It’s normally advisable to buy when there is no war,” he said.

Opposition lawmakers have described the procurement as illegal, and accused the government of draining the central bank’s reserves without parliamentary approval.

The purchase of the jets has also been criticised by technocrats, including Bank of Uganda Governor Tumusiime Mutebile. Mr Mutebile in June told the UK’s Financial Times newspaper that he had disagreed with the President over the purchase of fighter jets. But the President said the jets will beef the security capacity of the UPDF. He said the army relied on the M16 helicopters to end the LRA war.

The Russian-built Sukhoi SU-30 jet fighter is a twin-engine, all-weather aircraft, which can be deployed in air-to-air and air-to-surface missions. It can undertake combat missions within a 3,000-kilometre range, affording the UPDF the legroom to strike distant targets with precision and efficiency.

The pilots are Ugandan ...went to Russia for training, and anyways they have been flying MiG-21s for a very long time (and the Fishbed is called the flying coffin for a very good reason ...the SU-30 Flanker is a much easier aircraft to safely fly than the Fishbed). It should also be noted that Uganda has garnered quite a bit of interest due to oil being discovered, which has also made Museveni play off the West (primarily the US) against the East (primarily China). The Ugandan economy relies quite a bit on foreign assistance, and the discovery of oil reserves has made the Chinese far more interested in the country. As for the Flanker purchases from Russia, that is totally Museveni's (rather silly and expensive) idea. In terms of cost-to-benefit ratio, especially considering that most nations around Uganda do not have anything that sophisticated, the 'best' purchase would have been Chinese JF-17s. I hate to say that considering it is a Chinese plane, but in terms of a cost-to-benefit perspective considering adjacent countries, Uganda would not need anything better than that - a simple single-engined supersonic jet fighter with alright maneuverability, an ok radar, and ok missiles. Especially considering that the largest economy in the region (by far) is Kenya, and even Kenya doesn't have anything more sophisticated than Northrop F-5s that are bl@@dy old (when Kenya 'updated' its airforce earlier this year it purchased some second-hand F-5s from Jordan, which had been upgraded with a better radar ....and note that Kenya's military budget is much higher than Uganda's, and it doesn't require foreign aid). The 'best' airforce in the region is Ethiopia's, which also has Flankers ...although the Ethiopian purchase makes sense because of its war with Eritrea (where Ethiopian Flankers flown by Russian mercenaries were shooting down Eritrean MiG-29 Fulcrums flown by Ukranian mercenaries).

Anyways, the main interest in Uganda is due to the oil discovery (and that oil is not that much by international standards, and it is a waxy type of oil). The same attention will also be directed towards the new nation of South Sudan, which has far more oil and of a better quality. As usual, it is China that is doing most of the inroads in Africa. The Flanker purchase is solely Museveni's choice, since he looked at the best fighter he could purchase (which is the Flanker - which he got at quite the expensive price), even when he could probably have purchased (or, in all honesty, be given for free) the less capable Chinese JF-17 that would have met all his needs 100%.

Boys with toys, and for Museveni this was simply the aerial equivalent of Saddam getting a gold-plated AK-47. Looks good, but will never be used. And while he does this the neighboring nations are upgrading their infrastructure and getting their systems to work. Honestly quite ridiculous.

Your point on the pilots is noted, but what about maintenance? While the SU-30 may be much easier to fly, it must also be much more maintenance intensive. State-of-the-art, fly-by-wire aircraft are temperamental beasties that need a lot of high tech coddling.

In contrast, the MiG-21 may be a flying coffin (as you noted), but it is also a relatively simple aircraft that can be maintained and operated in third world conditions, with simple tools and relatively few trained mechanics.

I still think that Uganda must have gotten a sweetheart deal on the things, with the hooker of allowing Russia to establish a bare-bones, but expandable military presence in Uganda.

That area of the world is becoming increasingly important to China and they are expanding their footprint considerably. That expanded footprint and investment is going to be increasingly backed and protected by the PLA in the future.

In fact, my reading of China’s aircraft carrier development has led me to conclude that their intended area of operations will not be Asia, at least not exclusively. The PLAN is looking to expand its power projection capabilities in to Africa itself, and their aircraft carrier project is a big part of that.

For its part, Russia can’t allow China’s expansion into the resource-rich sub-Saharan region to go completely unanswered. They need to be able to at least keep an eye on the Chinese and have some ability to counter them as well, hence this Uganda deal.

If I’m right, we can expect to see other nations in the regions signing up for nifty new Russian military toys, which will require similar infrastructure and maintenance arrangements.

You make three very good points. The first is that maintenance will likely be the Achilles heel of the Flanker purchase, especially when it comes to areas such as the engines.

The second is that Russia may be trying to get some toehold, although for the most part it is too late for Russia (and the West in particular) since China (and to a lesser extent, India) was given too much of a head start in the continent. Something I have been screaming about for years (and getting responses ranging from the sound of crickets chirping to 'intelligent' FReepers telling me the only thing of worth in Africa is beetle dung). The result is China gaining more and more influence over a continent that is extremely resource-rich (read: raw materials for Chinese industry and growth), has the fastest growing middle-class in the world (read: a growing market for Chinese goods/exports), and if Guam is an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' for the US then Africa is the same for China ...except rather than being the size of an island it is the size of a continent (an interesting internet exercise would be to look at how many countries can fit into Africa ...according to a map I have on my desk, the whole of the USA + China + Europe + India + Argentina + New Zealand would all fit into Africa ...it is a very interesting map that puts them all inside the outline of Africa). But hey, it is only worth beetle dung thus the Chinese can go ahead and get it according to some 'Mensa' types on this forum.

However, it is the third point that is the most salient. Where you say that the Chinese area of operations may not necessarily be Asia, but rather to protect their interests elsewhere. It is really nice to see someone who can see beyond the surface issues most people (here and elsewhere) tend to only look at. Most people always have to see everything as either black or white ...good or evil ....friend or foe. Yet, in the real world at least, it is mostly various shades of gray (and 'friends' like (a) Pakistan and the (b) OBL when he was part of the Afghani Mujahadeen can transform years later into horrors and beasts). Some think that if a country develops some capability it is supposed to be matched off item by item against an analogous American weapon/system. It doesn't work that way, unless the country doing that wants to get defeated. Take the J-20 sino 'stealth' fighter ....the moment it came through it was matched up against the American F-22 (same thing happened when the Russians had released the PakFa prototype a year before). Or the aircraft carrier being written off because the US has 10-11. Chinese military strategy is not about matching the US item for item ...it is about creating the capability of conventional deterrence (i.e. enough to make the US not make moves, similar to how a hornet or wasp requires stinging venom that can cause pain rather than a super-hyper-ultra venom that can kill with one sting ...it only needs the venom to serve as a deterrent, and it will keep away a bear many thousands of times its size). Once conventional (as well as nuclear as a backup) deterrence is achieved, which is almost done and should be finalized in 5 years, then China will augment its power projection capabilities ...but again not against the US (not necessary, because the Chinese will not be conducting blockades of the West Coast). The purpose of the power projection will be to ensure their assets in Africa (e.g. 'beetle dung') and in Latin America, as well as claimed assets nearer to them (e.g. in the South China sea) are well covered.

Anyways, I guess we shall see. However, the Chinese have been making a lot of investments in the capabilities and technologies (Jeff Head has a very good website with the latest pictures), and those technologies do not need to be as good or as many as what the US has. They simply need to be good enough and many enough to do the job of deterrence (keeping Uncle Sam out), plus being capable of ensuring that the silk glove China offers to nation-states in Africa and Latin America has an iron fist (if necessary, and I doubt that will be since they are very happy with the Chinese apart from a few exceptions here and there ...e.g. Zambia), as well as making nations like Viet Nam back down. As for Taiwan ...unfortunately that is a foregone conclusion. Taipei will never receive any assistance from the West (the US has been sitting on commitments for 2 administrations now ...we like to point fingers at Obama, but Bush was not giving them those F-16s either; and China has made sure via economic carrots and sticks that other nations that could provide equipment like submarines, such as Germany, Russia and France, do not do so). Within the next two decades Taiwan will become a part of China without much fuss.

Anyways, let me go sniff some beetle dung.

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