He Speaks (Perry will compete against Obama for California)

Time ^ | August 11, 2011 | Mark Halperin, The Page

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Go pick a fight with someone else.

[Lakeshark]

I can handle what you said, but fortunately for us all Reagan did beat Bush the first time. I’m looking for someone who will continue to be better than that family at this point, someone who will beat what they have stood for, not someone who is necessarily close to them.

[Lakeshark]

Sorry lady, you picked the fight with me, all I did was let you know the interview you posted shows that, contrary to what you and others have been saying, Perry is quite close to the Bush family.

If you want to contradict your own candidate, go ahead, but don't claim I picked a fight with you, and don't claim I've been a consistent anti-Perry poster unless you can find one other post to show that. I'm saying you can't, so at some point either show the post(s) or maybe you should consider an apology for your thin skinned attitude and your rather silly looking declaration about my position on Perry.

[Mr Rogers]

I don’t like Perry, but I’d support him in a general election against Obama. Although to be honest, I would support ANY of our candidates against Obama!

Well...maybe not Newt...OK, Newt too. Heck, if I can cast a vote for McCain against Obama...

[Huck]

I’m not that excited about it. He’s just the best available it seems. And he’d be an idiot to nominate Palin. or Bachmann. Won’t happen.

[Rick_Michael]

I think McCain is a worse candidate than Gore to be honest. He’s everything wrong with the Republican party, but I don’t blame Palin for supporting him. She was wrong to help reelect him in Arizona, but I don’t blame her. People are wrong at times and they change.

Look at Reagan and Amnesty....you can accurately say without that, we could potentially have many states like California in play. Reagan saw the error of his ways and I do think Perry has (from what I’ve read). Just don’t get all caught up in the internal fighting.

When it comes down to it, the next election will not only determine the president...but two court justices and that’s HUGE!

[RWGinger]

mr rogers
I understand. and I know there likely won’t be an ideal candidate for me but if he has basic smaller gov’t goals i cna live with whoever it is.

Perry isn’t the worst of them and not the best of them but I do know he will appeal to many and he won’t be mealy mouthed

[fieldmarshaldj]

First off, I’ll preface this by saying my opposition to the squish Perry grows by the day. Any candidate who is open borders and panders to illegals in their actions doesn’t have my support whatsoever, as I explained in a post last night.

As for your point about McCain vs. Dubya (with respect to California), the irony that McCain was claimed to be “better suited” to California’s “moderate” (sic) voters (as proclaimed by the media/political establishment) and yet he only received a paltry 37%. This was quite literally the worst performance for a GOP Presidential candidate (excluding the extraordinary 1992 three-way race where Bush, Sr. received only 33%) in a 2-way race since “Moderate” Alf Landon in 1936 when he received 32%. Even Barry Goldwater received 41% in 1964 (although he carried just 5 counties). Dubya received 44% in 2004.

Obviously, this debunks the myth that a “moderate” is inherently a better choice to run, one I’ve said all along. However, in saying that, California at present I hold out little to no hope that it will support a GOP Presidential candidate of any stripe. Sadly, a majority of the state can best be described as a (leftist political) drug addict. At some point, quite soon, if not already, it is going to be consuming itself and it will collapse in on itself. Those that are tired of being fed upon by the parasites will vote with their feet.

Add to that that the GOP brand is damaged in California.

I viscerally opposed Ah-nold 8 years ago because I rightfully predicted, as a Socialist, he would leave the state and state party in disastrous shape and get the party painted with the broad brushstroke of his terrible policies (even if Conservative Republicans opposed him). With Whitman (and Fiorina) it demonstrated a continuation of this failure. Perry is demonstrably not much different than those so-called “moderates” (talk is cheap, always pay attention to the policies — non-Conservatives always seem to “discover” Conservatism before an election and just as quickly discard it afterwards, and that applies to Democrats, too) and I expect his performance to probably be equal to theirs (scoring perhaps somewhere above McCain’s 37% and below Dubya’s 44% were he the nominee).

Even with Palin as the nominee, for which I wholeheartedly endorse and support, it is doubtful she could change the equation in the state at present. The state will have to crash and crash badly with Democrats fully at the helm before some of the remaining sane souls start to change their voting habits. The CA Democrats will still choose to blame national Republicans for their disastrous mess (much like how in urban areas that Democrats have blamed Republicans to keep non-Whites on the plantation despite the fact that most Republicans have had little to zero input in that local governance for decades, Detroit a prime example of that). There’s a psychological element to this, but I won’t rehash it here.

[Impy]

There are for once gonna be a ton of competitive house races in Cali.

If Obama gets a huge landslide there again, not good.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

However, in saying that, California at present I hold out little to no hope that it will support a GOP Presidential candidate of any stripe. Sadly, a majority of the state can best be described as a (leftist political) drug addict.

I wonder who the "swing" vote in the state is anymore. The electoral maps over time have shown practically the entire coast morph into moonbat territory, and the big GOP margins in Southern Cal, particularly Orange Co. and San Diego Co., have declined dramatically. (Obama even won San Diego County in 08)

If Tom McClintock is any indication, a clear conservative choice can run up the margin pretty close, but there's always that last little bit that he couldn't scale. Looking at the 06 Lt. Gov race, he won 60% in populous Orange County, great performance given how the county has dwindled for the GOP, but just 36% in Los Angeles County. The numbers are almost identical in his even closer 2002 Controller race. (Winning Republicans tend to run just a little bit behind in Los Angeles County at least)

I'd say offering a clear-cut choice will help, but there needs to be some serious grassroots work in the Los Angeles area and in Central CA. People in those regions simply aren't budging much. Push up the numbers there, and you can win the state. As it is, the Dem wave has nearly claimed all of the coast and is pushing its way through the Sacremento metro area. Of course, you need a stronger CA GOP to pull off a reversal...

Yeah, I'd say the state isn't moving back to us any time soon.

[Crichton]

First off, I’ll preface this by saying my opposition to the squish Perry grows by the day.

Oppose him for the nomination all you want - he's by no means ideal - but he meets my threshold for general election support and right now seems like the likeliest nominee.

Maybe Republicans will win back a bare majority in the Senate in 2012, maybe not -- but if Obama's still in power it will be nigh impossible to repeal Obamacare and change the course that Obama & co have set toward outright socialism.

I have high standards -- but low expectations. I think a Perry presidency would be reasonably positive for conservatives.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Yes, once again the biggest obstacle to change in CA is the GOP Establishment. When they consider Democrats less of a threat than Tom McClintock, you’ve got a very serious problem. Offering a desultory, Dem-lite (hence, Socialist) and left-wing social platform that panders to the very worst elements destroying the state and it’s no wonder why we come up with nothing on election day. If it takes bypassing the CA GOP to build a grassroots Conservative movement in the state, that’s what is going to have to happen. It is so sad and sickening, and one is glad Reagan didn’t live to see it. It’s like George Christopher won the ideological battle for the GOP in 1966.

[fieldmarshaldj]

If Perry had actually demonstrated some leadership on Conservative issues (not a bunch of talk pandering to the party base, which is less than useless), I’d consider him supportable. He hasn’t. There are at least a dozen Governors (perhaps more) that have better credentials than he does. He’s the Gubernatorial version of McCain, with better hair (almost an amalgamation of McCain with Slick Willard’s facade). If he has been a serious disappointment as Governor of Texas, especially on issues of importance, how will he magically morph into a great President ? That’s the same argument that was made against Zero in ‘08. A mediocre Senator with no accomplishments somehow becoming the next Messiah ? A WTF ?!? if there ever was one. We need leaders, not politicians, and Perry ain’t even in the ballpark of the former.

[Crichton]

There are at least a dozen Governors (perhaps more) that have better credentials than he does.

How many are running this year?

Maybe one?

[fieldmarshaldj]

And there’s the problem right there. We need to start drafting candidates rather than sitting here waiting for the least of the damaging primadonna RINOs.

Here, I’ll cite 5 current Governors I’d put forward as draft-worthy for President:
FL - Rick Scott
ME - Paul LePage
NE - Dave Heineman
OH - John Kasich
WI - Scott Walker

Here’s former ones I’d also put forward:
AK - Sarah Palin
ND - John Hoeven (current Senator)
OK - Frank Keating
PA - Mark Schweiker
RI - Don Carcieri
SD - Mike Rounds
VA - George Allen (his gaffe regardless)

[Impy]

The left sure has been hating on Rick Scott so I guess he must be doing pretty okay.

Oh but he doesn’t have Perry’s lush head of hair, NM....

I’d have liked to have seen Scott Walker run, new on the job or not. Like you said we need a leader, badly.

[Pelham]

Excellent post.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Thanks.