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To: Wuli
The Iranian regime has made it clear taht they wish to destroy the Great Satan (US) and Little Satan (Israel). "Death to America" is a standard chant at government events there. And these are the moderate Iranian Islamists. The Twelver Shia extremists believe that the Mahdi (Muslim Messiah) will only come when the Muslim world is cleansed by fire. THEY WANT TO BE NUKED. There is no deterring that faction.
And an Iranian bomb would prompt a Saudi, Egyptian, and Turkish nuclear bomb program. At that point there is no plausible deterrence as proving which country gave a weapon to which terrorist group quickly becomes impossible.
Unless you think that American cities (put aside Israel) should go up in mushroom clouds, this damn well is our problem.
18 posted on 11/03/2011 5:48:44 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: rmlew

You reference a lot of what ifs, maybes, might be, could be, and could possible be speculations, ignoring five things.

(1) we faced “possible” immanent annihilation from the Soviets, who vowed to bury us, and who had capabilities many times over what the Iranians have, or even could have; yet we contained the threat through a combination of all the different and various means we had available;

(2)we should not be concerned about the Wahabi and the Theocrats in Iran “blowing each other up” - it’s not our problem and we have no stake in backing either one; neither one are our true friends;

(3)if other states in the Middle East, like Egypt and Turkey behave as if they too must acquire nuclear weapons capabilities, it will be not because we have become their next threat - and therefor their arms will not be aimed at us - it will be because they want to behave as if Iran or the Saudis so armed are a threat to them - oh, gee, that is not likely in any sense, so “proliferation” will not advance by that means;

(4)we have become experts at tracking the nuclear programs of other countries, like Iran and North Korea, and there is not much they do that escapes us; suggesting we do have the means to identify and interdict weapons technology transfers and we have the ability to vastly increase those abilities as well, should we need to; and lastly

(5)just what are we developing and building anti-missile defenses for in the first place - just for show, or because we believe they can work - yes, we believe they can work.

We never made a first strike on either the Soviets or North Korea, during a whole host of moments when either one was a much more serious threat than Iran is or will be - to us; though we had the ability to do so and “get away with it” many times. Why? The strategic threat was real but the moment that is needed - immanent threat - never arrived. We never had to “pull the trigger” and WE do not need to with Iran AT THIS MOMENT. That is not to say that Iran won’t continue to move the clock from “potential” to “immanent” - such as directly attacking Israel - and THAT would change our need to change our response as well.

And, as I said, Israel and its security context is a whole other matter. The Theocrats in Iran have vowed to wipe Israel off the map and their arms programs are directed at that intent as well as to become of the king of the hill in Islam.

If anyone is directly and immanently threatened by the Iranian nuclear program, it is Israel, and not the U.S. That might give Israel some legitimacy for a “preventive” measure against Iran (I believe it does), but not the U.S. - at this point. In that regard I am for a U.S. position that is NOT intent on preventing such action by Israel, should Israel determine it must take it FOR ITS OWN SELF DEFENSE. That context, could soon be “immanent” for Israel, and help justify such a measure, by Israel.

We are far from that being the case as it concerns independent U.S. action - at this time.


19 posted on 11/04/2011 11:13:51 AM PDT by Wuli
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