Posted on 11/08/2011 6:25:48 PM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Fresh delays in F-35 program will test aging CF-18 fleet: expert
Undated handout photo of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, also known as Joint Strike Fighter, in flight.
Photograph by: Handout, Lockheed-Martin
OTTAWA — The Conservative government says a new, anticipated two-year delay in rolling out the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will not impact Canada.
But analysts say the delay will increase the stealth fighters' already-controversial price tag while pushing the country's aging CF-18s to the extreme limit of their life spans.
On Nov. 2, U.S. Maj.-Gen. Jay Lindell told members of the congressional subcommittee on tactical air and land forces on that the U.S. Air Force had expected the F-35 to be ready for initial deployment in 2016.
However, restructuring in the $66-billion program, which is already five years behind schedule, may push things back to 2018, he said.
"The program continues to experience challenges as it transitions from development to production, despite the significant accomplishments," Lindell said.
The Conservative government has said it planned to receive the first of Canada's 65 F-35s in late 2016 or early 2017.
That coincided exactly with the government's plan to begin a three-year phasing out Canada's CF-18s, which recently underwent a $2.6-billion upgrade to extend their life spans to 2020.
An official in Associate Defence Minister Julian Fantino's office said the delays Lindell warned about would not affect Canada's schedule.
"All reasonable people agree that we need aircraft to defend Canadian sovereignty and our plan is on track," Chris McCluskey said.
But while defending the F-35 during a military memorial ceremony in Calgary on Tuesday, Defence Minister Peter MacKay indicated Canada would not receive the last of its F-35s until 2022 — two years after the last CF-18 is supposed to be mothballed.
Retired lieutenant-general George MacDonald, now a consultant who has done work with Lockheed Martin — the manufacturer of the F-35 — said the government did build some flexibility into its schedule for receiving the F-35s and retiring the CF-18s.
"But this delay eats most of that up," he said. "So the risk is still not great for Canada. But it's tighter. The schedule doesn't have the flexibility it used to have."
The problem, said Alan Williams, a former defence official in charge of procurement, is there's no guarantee the program won't hit another snag.
"We do not know yet when these things will come off," he said.
The F-35 delays have already led Australia to conduct a critical review of the program. That country is looking at schedules to ensure its air force isn't grounded for any extended period because of delays in the stealth fighter program.
The Australian government has already bought 24 Boeing Super Hornets to compensate for delays in the rival F-35 program, and reports indicate it is actively considering more Super Hornets.
"The government will not allow an air combat capability gap to emerge in the event of (a Joint Strike Fighter) schedule delay," an Australian defence department spokesman told Postmedia News last week.
The U.S. Navy has also bought dozens of Super Hornets because of the F-35 delays, while the U.S. Air Force asked Congress last month for $3 billion to upgrade hundreds of older fighter aircraft.
Canada had specifically planned to buy the F-35s when they were in "peak production" to ensure the lowest price. This, not by coincidence, fell in line with when the CF-18s were to be replaced.
Delays endanger that schedule, Williams said, which threaten to cost Canadian taxpayers millions of dollars more than initially expected.
If Canada is forced to get one of the first batches of F-35s to come off the assembly line to ensure the CF-18s are replaced on schedule, Williams said, the cost will be much higher than during peak production.
Alternatively, he said, the CF-18s could be upgraded again to have their lives extended beyond 2020, but it would be an expensive undertaking with only limited benefits.
"We have a risk not so much that we won't fly our CF-18s," he said, "but will they be as effective as we want them to be?"
Meanwhile, as more countries like Australia begin looking at alternatives to fill gaps in their jet fighter capabilities, Williams said, fewer F-35s will be ordered which will drive up costs.
Liberal defence critic John McKay said the latest problems highlight the need for the Conservative government to devise an alternative to replacing the CF-18s in the event the F-35 program goes irreversibly off the tracks.
"It seems that the Aussies and the U.S. Navy and substantial parts of the U.S. Congress are much farther down the path of reality than our ministers are," he said.
"The only people that believe the schedule put forward is in the Conservative caucus. I haven't heard a lot of Plan B."
With files from Meghan Potkins, Calgary Herald
lberthiaume@postmedia.com
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