Posted on 11/14/2011 12:43:00 PM PST by NormsRevenge
The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession, with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.
While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second half of 2012, they found.
New governments in Greece and Italy, with fresh promises to tackle fiscal problems have in recent days, allayed investor concerns about a near-term sovereign debt default in the euro zone, but Europe's debt crisis is far from resolved. The region is facing its worst hour since World War II, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday.
Although domestic threats to economic growth in the United States are limited, a shock from abroad could derail a fragile recovery.
The weak U.S. economy is more than usually vulnerable to turbulence beyond its borders, as the unexpectedly severe U.S. effects from Japan's devastating earthquake in March demonstrates, the researchers said.
"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into recession," wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda in the latest San Francisco Fed Economic Letter. "However, if we navigate the storm through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly in 2013.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
So, that’d be, like, on TOP of the recession we’re in NOW?
We’ve been in the dumper since 2008. How much worse can it get?
What about Portugal, Ireland and Spain?
All major economies headed for slowdowns: OECD
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-economies-headed-slowdowns-oecd-110122448.html
PARIS (Reuters) - None of the world’s major economies will escape a slowdown, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Monday, highlighting increasing signs that growth momentum is dwindling across the board.
The Paris-based organization’s composite leading indicator (NYSE:CLI) for its members fell for the seventh straight month to 100.4 in September, down from 100.9 in August and hitting the lowest reading since December 2009.
Readings for individual countries and big developing world economies were broadly lower at levels indicating slowdowns, and were in many cases below their long-term averages.
“Compared to last month’s assessment, the CLIs point more strongly to slowdowns in all major economies,” the OECD said in a statement.
Curious, how reliable is the OECD? Any history on this org.?
In other words, if we can make to 2013 with obama still president, we’ll be okay.
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