What a treat.
Posted on 12/01/2011 11:34:53 PM PST by MitchellC
How long of a long shot?
He would make a good candidate. He almost knocked out Barney’s Frank in a district custom tailored for him. Now the district is far more Republican. Since he has good name recognition, he should do alright.
I hear they are going to try and jam another Kennedy in there on the Rat side. I think folks have had enough of them since Teddy died.
I bet Barney was told to leave before the 2012 election. They probably told him he was done.
If anyone wants to know some interesting info about “The Other McCain. Drop me a message via private message. I’ve got a few things to tell.
Thanks,
-DR
In the old MA-04, President Bush got 33% in 2004, McCain got 35% in 2008 and Scott Brown got 50%-51% in 2010. Under the new lines, I read that Bush and McCain got 38% and 39%, respectively (IIRC) in 2004 and 2008, and that Scott Brown got around 55% in 2010. Since the new MA-04 is around 5% less Democrat than before, we can estimate that Frank’s 53%-43% victory over Bielat from 2010 would become a 48%-48% dead heat. And, of course, it won’t be Barney Frank running this time, which cuts in both directions, but in a slightly Dem-leaning district I’d rather run against someone who doesn’t have 100% name ID and hasn’t been bringing pork into the region for three decades.
So this race should be competitive, and will depend in great measure on (i) who the Dem and GOP candidates are and (ii) how much buyers remorse voters in the district have regarding Obama. Bielat is probably our strongest candidate given the skills he showed in 2010, and he should be helped by Scott Brown being on the ballot; and Bielat is one of the few Republican congressional candidates nationwide who would probably benefit from Mitt Romney being the GOP presidential nominee (which, even with Newt’s recent rise, still has at least 50% probability of occurring).
So I think we’ve got a real chance of winning. While it is true that, since 2002, and excluding Cao’s fluke win against an indicted Bill Jefferson in LA-02 in a 2008 run-off, the most Democratic CDs to elect a Republican to Congress were about 6% more Republican (based on the 2004 presidential vote) than the redrawn MA-04 (Leach’s IA-02 and Simmons’s CT-02 in 2002 and 2004), I think that the MA-04 isn’t quite as Democrat as Bush-Kerry numbers would lead one to believe and, for once, the trend is our friend is Massachusetts.
Gold-GOP,
you got the info. You never revealed what state you live in on your profile page. Are you MASS?
I live in Puerto Rico, not Massachusetts. So, no, I won’t be able to join you campaigning door-to-door in Bielat’s district.
LOL
fat chance for me in Bielat.
Instead, I might do something in new #2 vs McGovern. Greenfield ... the valley radical hippie town area.
I think McGovern’s new CD is a bit more Dem than his old MA-03. Dem redistricters don’t have to work very hard in MA to draw Dem-leaning CDs; they can basically throw a dart at the map and expand from there, and no matter where the dart lands they’ll have a CD that gave Kerry and Obama at least 55% of the vote.
i guess the interest in CD#2 MA is the small town nature means there ain’t no DEM city machine and the right candidate can at least go into the small towns and get a personal following. At least it seemed fun once.
Isn’t Worcester still in McGovern’s CD? Not a large city by any means, but I’d be surprised if it didn’t have a Dem machine.
But the biggest problem will be all those liberals from the old MA-01 added to the district. You’ll sure have your work cut out for you. And if we can’t get a good candidate to run (McGovern hasn’t faced a strong challenge in years), I don’t think the election will be competitive. If you’re interested in volunteering for a competitive contest and the McGovern race looks to be one-sided, the Frank, Tierney and Keating districts should all be more competitive (and Frank’s redrawn CD has areas that are probably as close to your home as McGovern’s CD).
yeah, I got the map.
I’m not getting seriously involved. Just gonna show up a bit next summer to get out of town into the country. Jay Fleitman would be the guy to run against McGovern.
Waiting to see how CT-5 is redrawn. Open seat. I am supporting conservative, constitutionalist, prolife Mark Greenberg. But I promise that I will just dabble in it. I ain’t into joining big efforts and going all out.
I have wearied of all the vile people that get attracted to campaigns and all the other people who refuse to lift a finger and bark at ya. peeple are ingrates and pigs.
” I think that the MA-04 isn’t quite as Democrat as Bush-Kerry numbers would lead one to believe and, for once, the trend is our friend is Massachusetts.”
Good analysis. Thanks.
What’s the skinny on the 6th (Hudak running again?) and the 9th (former 10th)? Any shot in those?
not taking MA seriously.
they say 3 6 9 could be good along with Barney’s.
I have no idea.
Oh crap, that fruity RINO Tisei is running in the 6th.
What a treat.
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