Posted on 12/14/2011 12:19:04 PM PST by neverdem
Obama's re-election team on Tuesday unveiled five potential paths for the president to win in 2012. They can be summarized as follows:
(1) West Path: The Kerry states, plus Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada (272 electoral votes).
(2) Florida Path: The Kerry states, plus Florida (275 EVs).
(3) South Path: The Kerry states, plus North Carolina and Virginia (274 EVs).
(4) Midwest Path: The Kerry states, plus Ohio and Iowa (270 EVs).
(5) "Expansion Path": The Kerry states, minus Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, plus Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona (272 EVs).
While it may sound re-assuring to the president’s supporters to hear that he has multiple paths to re-election, the truth is that all of these routes are awfully tenuous. Viewing them in light of his job approval ratings, one probably has to conclude that he remains a slight underdog.
Let’s look at the following chart. It shows a rough average of the president’s job approval numbers in key swing states in recent polls, which is one of the strongest predictors of how a president ultimately performs:
Obviously, how these ratings translate into actual votes is dependent upon the GOP nominee. If Romney gets the nod, the president will have an extremely tough time winning New Hampshire, while Romney’s somewhat patrician demeanor may not play well in blue-collar Pennsylvania. At the same time, Team Obama could probably make Rick Perry radioactive in New Hampshire and pull out the win, while seeing Perry run better in the Mountain West and connecting with those blue-collar Pennsylvanians.
Setting aside candidate-specifics, we can make some broad generalizations about the president’s path. Right now, the president is looking like an okay bet to hold the Bush ’04 state of New Mexico, and is also performing well in Wisconsin.
After that, however, all of the paths become problematic...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
The chart is from the regular first webpage. I linked the printer friendly page.
What about the illegal alien and voter fraud path? Which one is that?
None of those paths are possible at this time.
Obama 2012 voters pictured above.
We will be stuck with The Messiah in 2012-2016 if Romney-the-RINO is the Nominee. Vote Fraud in OH will also be at record levels, I'm sure.
The Unions will assure multi-votes, and ACORN will assist.
They are testing the methods of voter fraud in Wisconsin, right now:
“WISN reports that the Government Accountability Board will only check the addresses and dates that accompany the signatures. It will “flag” names that seem suspicious — e.g. Mickey Mouse — but “will not strike them without challenge.” To initiate a recall election, there will need to be 540,208 valid signatures, so significantly more than that will probably be submitted.”
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2011/12/impossible-task-of-verifying-signatures.html
Co-worker of mine was telling me last night that he felt Obama couldn’t win—the electoral votes he got from certain states won’t be there this time. I said I hope he’s right though I wonder if people who don’t agree with whom the GOP nominee is, stay home, vote third party, etc. Yes you can be ideologically pure and not vote for a “RINO”. And get four more years of Obama.
—2000: AlGore misses out, barely...had he won his home state of Tenn. it would have put him over the top. The focus was on Florida but what can you say about a guy who can’t win his home state? President Gore...imagine.
—2004: Thank you Ohio. Rush played “My City was Gone”
by the Pretenders, aka his theme song (written about
Chrissie Hynde’s hometown of Akron). “Uh-ha-hey ho,
way to go, Ohio” President Kerry...imagine.
What if Obama can’t win states like PA or OH this time
around?
But yeah, just stay home, let the RINO Gingrich or the
RINO Romney lose and enjoy four more years of the Messiah.
Vote fraud will indeed be rampant. Illegals.
No matter who gets the nomination, if conservatives/
Republicans stay home, we get Obama again. Though maybe independents will make a difference (Keep in mind
btw that many independents get to vote in GOP primaries.
They can hand the nomination to a McCain or a Romney or
a Gingrich. They also could vote for the GOP in the final
election. The independents went Dem in ‘08. This time...?
There, must take into account faith-based campaigning.
>>>What about the illegal alien and voter fraud path? Which one is that?<<<
Indeed. I expect the Democrats to attempt fraud on a massive scale, and I expect the media to be their accomplices. The Chicago way is about to become the American way. God help us.
Nobody has lost two of these three key swing states and won the election since Grover Cleveland managed the feat in 1892: Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. And, at the time, Florida wasn't even considered a swing state.
they left out the “winning on a thin plurality over a field comprised of Romney, Trump, Paul, Huntsman and somebody representing the Tea Party” path.
Common, there has to some bona-fide legal organization that can successfully file RICO charges or something similar against the corrupt ACORN causing the organization to be restrained or cease and desist or disband altogether. I thought this was already under way.
There is. It's called the U.S. Department of Justice.
I think the chances of AG Eric Holder filing RICO charges against ACORN are somewhere between slim and none with slim having just left town.
Thanks for the link.
These people have gone to the Nancy Pelosi School of Election Predicting (”I will still be Speaker of the House”).
These five separate paths are all based on the same shaky assumption: ALL THE KERRY STATES. Miss that assumption by one state, and Obama is gone.
Why it is that Kerry State-based paths remind me of something that is:
red
dropped off a meatball
never washed out
left a stain on my shirt
Known in ancient eastern mythology as the “path of a thousand ketchup tears”
Gop appoints Dole, loses.
GOP appoints McCain, loses.
GOP appoints Newt, same story different year.
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