UPDATE (1:31am): ”Soon…” this will be over. Still doesn’t sound good for Newt.Well Newt fans... Get ready...
UPDATE (1:41am): Well folks… if you’re truly this interested, stick around for the RPV press release… otherwise, I relinquish control of the live-blogging and say g’night and Merry Christmas Eve! UPDATE (1:39am): Final update from RPV should be coming in the next hour or so. Still not looking good for Newt on the inside.
I don’t think you Newt people really have to worry that much at all. If these early primaries (except NH) go the way their anticipated to, then it may not make a big difference.
March 6 is Super Tuesday#1. The Anti-Romney candidate is going to clean up this night. You have primaries in Tennessee, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas worth nearly 332 delegates that Romney will have a hard time winning much in. Additionally, there are Mar 6 caucuses in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, and Wyoming where the Anti-Romney would most likely do well with strong Tea Party organization.
Romney’s saving grace for March 6 has been the Massachusetts and Vermont primaries, where he would be favored. Super Tuesday#1 is worth about 556 Delegates total, and even with a 50% majority win in VA, would only get Romney to around 108, including VT and MA. Add in some proportional delegates of the other state caucuses and primaries and he would only have about 150-160 delgates, while the Anti-Romney would pick up the other 390-400, plus.
After Michigan, the states get troubling for Romney until the month of April comes when the more liberal states start rolling in. By then though, the Anti-Romney should have a good head of steam making it more difficult.
does this mean Newt and Perry will be excluded from the debates?