Posted on 02/05/2012 2:48:16 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Hot on the heels of Mitt Romney’s big win in Nevada come two more caucuses and another primary on Tuesday, in which no delegates will get directly assigned to any candidate. However, both offer opportunities to shape the media coverage of the overall primary campaign, and for Rick Santorum, this might mean some good news. PPP’s latest and final polls from Colorado and Minnesota give bad news to Newt Gingrich, however:
Last night’s results in Nevada were bad news for Newt Gingrich and PPP’s first day of polling in Colorado and Minnesota indicates things may only get worse for him in the coming days.
In Colorado Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.
Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.
What both states have in common is that Gingrich has fallen precipitously since our last polls in them. In Colorado Gingrich was in first place with a 19 point lead in early December. His support has declined 19 points since then and his net favorability has dropped 33 points from +41 (64/23) to only +8 (49/41). Gingrich has had a similarly large decline in Minnesota, but there it’s much more abrupt. We polled the state only two weeks ago but in that time he’s dropped 14 points from 36% to 22%, and his favorability has 26 points from +34 (59/25) to +8 (47/39). That after glow from South Carolina has worn off real fast.
Santorum’s good news comes from Missouri more than Minnesota, where he had an eleven-point lead over Romney in a poll taken last weekend. A lot has happened since, and Romney’s momentum from Florida and now Nevada might prove decisive. Santorum will be spending the day in Minnesota and the evening in Colorado, but I’d expect a bigger push to win the non-binding Missouri primary. He needs another win, even one that produces no delegate assignments, to get the media to break out of the two-man-race paradigm that has dominated the last two weeks of coverage.
Minnesota may be another surprise in the making, although it’s too close to tell and an expected low turnout will complicate the outcome. Santorum now leads among Tea Party voters in both Colorado and Minnesota, and he beats Gingrich among “very conservative” voters in Minnesota by 16 points, 41/25. Santorum not only leads the first choice question in MN, he also wins the second-choice question by a wider margin of five points over Gingrich and six over Romney, 25/20/19, with Ron Paul at 9%. He has by far the best favorability rating in the poll, with 72/18 giving him a +54, compared to a +7 for Paul, +8 for Gingrich, and +11 for Romney, the onlty other candidate to get to 50% favorable in MN. Santorum’s votes here are second-most firm at 25%, behind Romney’s at 29%.
Let’s say lightning strikes twice on Tuesday and Santorum manages to win both Minnesota and Missouri, while Romney coasts to a win in Colorado. Besides the Maine caucuses that go on all week (and which are also non-binding), does this give Santorum an edge on the argument for being the true conservative consolidation candidate? And conversely, if Santorum can’t win anything on Tuesday and with big Romney leads looming in Arizona and Michigan, is there an argument for Santorum’s perserverance?
It would be awesome if Santorum can take a few wins away from Milt.
I’m so glad that money is not a factor in this race and that being a liberal is not a factor and that Romneycare is not an issue and that the very rich and the poor are not involved.
newt dropping fourteen points in minnesota...ouch...
dont worry the south will save him...the south will save him...the south will save him
well you will be very glad in november
I know Newt thinks he has to fight back hard against Romney’s attacks ...but if he’d just go positive and EDUCATE this country on how bad things are ... I think it would help.
Not that any of them are listening. They are too busy grazing in the fields ...
Phyllis Schaffley said yesterday that she’ll be voting for Santorum.
There really is something to be said for going positive. My congressman ran a purely positive campaign and didn’t really defend himself against the nastiest crap the democrat incumbent and union minions threw at him.
People were sure the democrat was going to keep the seat but in the end being an honest soft spoken man won him the seat and it cost half as much money as the democrats threw at him.
We’ve received more than half a dozen calls (I want to say 8, but there may have been more) from or on behalf of the Romney campaign since Friday (yes, in the last TWO DAYS) here in Colorado. We’ve also been invited to see Romney speak by friends who are Romney supporters. We politely declined.
I wish the Romney calls would stop. Though on the plus side, if they call during the Super Bowl, a lot of people will be very angry.
We’ve received two calls for Santorum - they were live calls, not robo-calls, which was nice.
Ron Paul has made an appearance, and he has signs up all over, but his followers are fanatics. Just no possible way.
Nothing for or from Newt, at all. No calls, no visits, no nothing.
I don’t know if Newt is forgoing Colorado, or if they’ve just missed us so far, but we haven’t seen much of a presence at all.
Everyone we know is for Romney, reluctantly; or Santorum (his supporters seem optimistic).
Now that is refreshing to hear. Sounds like you may have gotten someone decent to represent you.
I’m not buying it.
My congressman (Tim Walberg) gave liberals something to squeal about the other day when he compared Fast and Furious to the Penn State sex abuse cover up.
“I’m not buying it.”
What aren’t you buying?
I’m broke. I ain’t buying nuthin right now.
I think you’re addressing the wrong poster. LOL
We've also received tons of mailers from Romboma and a few from Santo...even tho we've not donated to either. Seems quite odd.
First he gets his own country, then he gets his own world.
How is Nevada a “big win”? The turnout was low, very low, and half of them were just there to vote for a Mormon.
Like New Hampshire and Florida, Nevada is not a conservative state.
The latest figures I saw, fewer than 60,000 people even bothered to vote.
My observations on this:
1. The American Idol/Sheeple voters are out in force
2. Mittens wins YET AGAIN when the conservatives split their vote.
According to the AP, Romney's below his 2008 win of 51%. At 22%, Newt is above 2008's second placer Ron Paul who didn't even make 14% that year. Eventual nominee McCain was third place.
Thinking about what might come if Romney won FL and anticipating the lay of the land in Feb, I predicted this would be the storyline pushed out by the "enemedia." All "Romney is inevitable" all the time.
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