Posted on 02/21/2012 7:06:41 AM PST by Mustang Driver
As I look at the Real Clear Politics averages of the polls of the various match-ups between President Obama and the various Republican candidates, I know I am supposed to feel impending doom. But I dont. Lets see, the numbers this morning are:
Obama 49.0% Romney 43.3%
Obama 50.0% Santorum 42.5%
Obama 53.0% Gingrich 39.1%
Obama 48.6 % Paul 40.4%
But I dont feel doom. Here are 9 reasons why: February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September and October.
A couple could copulate today and still have a baby by Election Day.
President Obamas leads of 5.7% to 13.9% over each candidate do not scare me. In fact, they are rather puny.
At this point 8 years ago this month, John Kerry was ahead of Bush by 12 points in the Gallup Poll: 55%-43%.
And in January 1980, the Gallup Poll showed:
Carter 63% Reagan 32%
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.dailymail.com ...
Carter (+19) vs. Obama (-2) in February of Year 4
——And in January 1980, the Gallup Poll showed:
Carter 63% Reagan 32%——
Most excellent, Grasshopper.
I was blessed to be 18 in 1980, and able to vote for Ronaldus Magnus, but I don’t remember these polls. But I remember gas lines, stagnation, and The Kinks, “Low Budget.”
I also supported Jack Kemp in the primary, which is embarrassing in retrospect. I also remember the “I paid for this microphone,” moment, which was the first time Reagan caught my attention.
Republicans are committing political suicide if they nominate that Ronald Reagan guy. He is WAY too conservative. Women and moderates will NEVER vote for him. It’s going to be a landslide win for Carter, unless Republicans settle on someone more electable like George H.W. Bush or John Anderson.
An average of bad polls is going to be just as bad.
The problem is that there is not agreement as to who that is, because conservatism isn't a monolith. In particular, you have the tension between social conservatives and libertarians. Santorum is the strongest social conservative, but is also not as much a small government guy as some of the others. Gingrich kind of pitches and yaws between small government conservativism with occasional grandiose ideas. Paul is probably the most small government of the bunch, but has weird ideas on national security and no social conservatism. And Romney, for all his flaws, may be the biggest free market proponent of the bunch (other than on health care) except for Paul, but without Paul's nutty foreign policy.
In any case, I think "conservatives", however you might define that, should get behind the person they think is the most conservative candidate who they also believe can win. Ignoring the ability to win the general election is foolish, in my opinion, unless symbolic votes are your thing.
Averages of the Polls
Obama 30%
Anybody but Obama 70%
Just being realistic.
Santorum is talking about gaming the tax rates to give preferences, and supports more government intervention in the economy, and Newt angered a lot of conservatives with his attacks on Bain Capital. By default, they've left Romney as the rhetorical defender of capitalism, except for his stance on RomneyCare.
That's more of a pathetic commentary on the stupid things said by Newt and Santorum than it is anything good about Romney.
Romney remains the same slimy gameshow host he's always been, but these other guys aren't helping themselves in taking advantage of that. I'm still pulling for Newt, though, because I think he is the only one of the three serious contenders capable of framing the free market v. socialism debate in a manner appealing to swing voters.
And the other elephant in the room is that culturally conservative Americans were still the silent majority. His views on issues like abortion/prayer in school helped him b/c that was where 70% of the country was.
January 1980 was well before Reagan was the presumptive nominee. After he was I believe a close race was expected.
And I still remember that Kerry 55% Bush 43% poll. That thing was an outlier if memory serves.
Obama’s numbers do not impress me.
I know you say that with a certain amount of pride, however, all you have proven is that you are a willing and useful tool of Obama.
Congratulations.
Tom,
Kemp didn’t run until ‘88.
‘80 was Reagan, Bush, Anderson, Baker.
Connolly, Crane, and Dole dropped out early.
My mind is going....
Yes, that's good counsel...
so long as it is not Bishop Mitt Romney whom I will NEVER vote for!!
Carter had a primary challenge, Obama will not. He has been able to spend the last year or so rallying Dems behind him as the GOP (Republicans in Congress) master making them dance to his tune. Alternately Democrats were fighting with Carter for his four years and divided, and he had his own Dem congress, the kiss of death.
If the election was held today, which it is not, things would look pretty grim for the GOP. But things can happen outside of his control between now and then so it is not over.
I don't see a Reagan in the field.
That kind of thinking got us McCain last time.
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