If your analysis is correct, Romney is the nominee. By the time enough of the voters decide to switch to move Newt out of third or fourth place in the upcoming states, Romney will have locked up enough to coast to a win at the convention. In most Super Tuesday states, Newt would have to double his current polling (in one week) to get into second.
Romney was on course to be the nominee months ago once the “base”, and I’m not sure who is running it these days, decided to get flightly and start jumping around based on debate performances. I’m a little old fashioned. I wanted to pick a conservative nominee based on an overall conservative record to most issues but that seems to be a minority view the last few elections.
All I know is that while the liberal segment of the GOP may be a minority they settle on a nominee early and stick with them. Meanwhile we’ve ended up with Newt who has a history of being a serial adulterer with a penchant for kissing up to liberals and the establishment if it advances his own career. Ron Paul who is an anti-semite. And Santorum who makes conservatives and “tea Party” goers hypocritical considering how they blasted Bush and now want to back someone who likes big government even more then he did but has less personal charm to sell himself.
Is it a wonder voting turnout has been so low? I’m certainly not voting for any of these people in the primaries. The madness that made these the pick of the crop to choose from isn’t going to lure me behind any of them and other conservatives must feel the same since they’ve abstained from voting too.