They think that Romney has put such an emphasis on the math that he could be vulnerable should he begin to stumble.
Newt's strategy going forward is based on Romney "stumbling" or "collapsing." ON THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY the numbers and type of states remaining to vote indicate Romney is going get over the hump of 1,144, probably in June.
The only potential shake-up is if all the votes go to ONE conservative, and he is able to shut Romney out by performing about as well in the "winner-take-all" contests as Newt and Rick's current votes combined would amount to.
If Newt wants to be a player at a contested convention, one of the only things he can do is figure out how to get all his voters to vote for Santorum from now on. Because there won't be a contested convention otherwise, unless that dramatic Romney collapse comes out of nowhere.
That’s a good analysis you make. I believe if a candidate withdraws, the delegates acquired up to that point are no longer committed and may choose to join any camp. During last Tuesday’s primaries, John King of CNN sketched a hypothetical albeit rosy scenario on his electronic tally board, where if Gingrich does withdraw now, Santorum’s numbers could move up whereby he is within catch-up distance of Romney. If Gingrich, on the other hand remains in the race, this is simply not a possibility.
Although the CA primary with delegates allotted based on district voting is on June 05th, with Romney leading Santorum by some 20 points (and if this holds), it should be all over by June. Thus you make a good point that mathematically, barring “an act of God” Romney should have the delegate magic by June.