IN could well be a Democrat Senate gain if the Republican thinks he has the seat in the bag. Prior to Lugar, IN had two Democrat senators for quite some time. People there may be looking for federal programs from which they could benefit.
This state is a lot like Illinois, where Chicago is one universe and the rest of the state is another. Here it is Indianapolis and the northwest corner (Chicago burbs). The rest of the state is very conservative with the exception of a couple little trouble spots (Bloomington, South Bend, etc).