My simpleminded calculation:
Winner margin over Loser = Independent Margin/3
Assumes turnout R = D and D/R/I = 33/33/33
So Romney should win according to this poll by 52 to 48 based on Romney’s 12% advantage with the Independents.
Note that the one thing that lib pollsters have difficulty fudging is the collected opinion of the Independents. It is what it is and even the Lib pollsters have generally reported it correctly.
The race is “on pause” while they try to show Obama being a leader and getting praise from Republicans for cleaning up from the storm all by hisself.