Number the Nukes

Ex-Russian strategic commander says new Chinese missiles threaten 1987 U.S.-Russia arms treaty.

A former commander of Russia’s nuclear forces warned the Obama administration this week that China’s short-range nuclear missiles are undermining the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and Russia.

Retired Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, a former commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, also said in an interview with the Washington Free Beacon that U.S. and Western arms specialists have dramatically underestimated China’s nuclear arsenal. Beijing’s warhead arsenal, he said, likely is between 1,600 to 1,800 nuclear warheads and bombs.

Yesin met with Pentagon, military, State Department officials, and members of Congress and congressional staff Wednesday and Thursday.

The visit culminated with consultations Thursday with Rose Gottemoeller, acting undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, to discuss the national security risks posed by China’s growing nuclear arsenal.

Yesin said he raised concerns during the meetings about the proliferation of short- and medium-range nuclear missiles, currently banned for Russia and the United States under the INF treaty.

Exactly. Expect Russia to get out of the treaty in the next couple of years. Their concerns actually do have a lot of merit, especially considering that militarily the only thing that will keep China out of Siberia in the text two decades is the risk of engaging Russia in a nuclear exchange, because militarily China will be more powerful than Russia from a conventional standpoint in the next 15-20 years. This is one reason why Russia has been building alliances with India, Viet Nam, and other countries in the area (the same reason why the US is building alliances with the same countries by the way).

As for the US, while Russia probably has the most clarified causes of concern, the US shouldn't be too comfortable either. There is only one superpower, and thus there is only one country that China is taking steps at being able to engage militarily. Already (as we speak) China is capable (already!) to ensure that the US doesn't do any funny business in its direct area of influence. There are very limited assets that can do much in the South China Sea. The only assets I can actually think of that can operate without cause for concern are the Virginia SSNs. Every other asset, such as aircraft carriers (the survivability of the F/A-18s is nil, and the carriers themselves would have to rely on their accompanying AEGIS destroyers to the hilt to protect them) and F-22 Raptors (a study showed that even if you gave the Raptors 100% kill ratios, and the Chinese Sukhois 0% probability of killing a Raptor, the Raptors would all be destroyed when the surviving Chinese fighters shot down the re-fueling planes and the Raptors crashed into the ocean after running out of fuel), would not survive. Only the Virginia's could (other assets can also survive but would not be needed and/or effective ...e.g. the Ohio SSBNs and the Ohio-based SSGNs can definitely survive, but they don't need to operate in the South China Sea to be effective due to the range of the missiles, and the B-2 Spirit should be able to survive but its impact would be limited). China can already stop US action in the South China Sea, and what it is working on now is ways of pushing that envelope further out.

I always say that I wish the people who always claim Russia is an existential threat to the US would also remember to look at China, because no matter what the old Coldwar Warriors may think, China is (by far ...orders of magnitude) a far greater existential threat to the US than Russia (even decades ago at the height of the Soviet Union) ever was. Back then the only way the USSR could smite the free world was with nuclear weapons. Today China is getting that option more and more with every passing 5 years, but more importantly it has access to a weapon that the USSR could only dream of. A strong economy. China is basically having the same weapon that the US had against Nazi Germany (and the USSR for that matter later on when Reagan bled their economy dry), yet people simply ignore it (and yet, if Putin kicks a blind dog in the mouth, they will instantly jump up and say he is the devil incarnate ...while China arms faster than any nation in history and not a peep from them. I think someone should photoshop Putin attending Chinese armament ceremonies ...maybe that will get peoples' attention).

I find it similar to people focusing all their attention on the threat of the Tasmanian Tiger and how it may eat their kids, even though most scientists believe the Tasmanian Tiger or Thylacine to be extinct, and YET ignoring the rabid mangy dingo that is ruffling about in their backyard just outside an open window that leads to the baby's crib. Yes, probably the Thylacine could eat a kid, and there have been reports that some have been sighted, but do not bloody ignore the bloody dog salivating outside your bloody house at your (soon to be) bloody kid!!!!! That's how I see perceptions between Russia and China. Old warrior knights still hunting dragons that haven't been sighted in 30 years, and ignoring crocodiles lurking about in the murky depths.

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