The problem Red has in Red vs Blue hostilities is armor. Red is going to lack armored vehicles for a while as they are mostly all made in Ohio. On the other hand Red will be on par in aviation assets from the get go. Navy? Tilt toward Red if they can keep Newport News...
What are they going to put in their armor to make them go? If CW2 happened, the grid would go down as just one side effect, for a number of reasons. No grid, no fuel distribution, panic in the streets, and the fedgov elite will be hunkered down in continuity of govt bunkers trying to figure out what to do. But all their plans and worries won’t get the electricity or the fuel moving again. So any CW2 would also be a fight for survival to find food, mostly fought at the zip code level with rifles. In that realm, the South would be supreme.