Posted on 07/05/2013 11:05:18 AM PDT by thackney
It was with some dismay that I read this morning of the impending end of The Oil Drum, perhaps the leading “peak oil” blog …
… due to scarcity of new content caused by a dwindling number of contributors. Despite our best efforts to fill this gap we have not been able to significantly improve the flow of high quality articles.
Because of this and the high expense of running the site, the board has unanimously decided that the best course of action is to convert the site to a static archive of previously published material as of 31st July 2013. We will continue to post articles up to this date. Afterwards any articles will be held as a public archive into the foreseeable future, so that others can continue to learn from the breadth and depth of knowledge published by our many authors, over the 8+ history of this remarkable volunteer effort.
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The Oil Drum is the latest victim of the nation’s ongoing boom in oil and natural gas production. Peak Oil Theory has become, for lack of a better word, unsustainable. They’ve had some very talented, analytical and insightful writers over at The Oil Drum; the names of Gail the Actuary, Robert Rapier, JoulesBurn and Art Berman come to mind.
If I seem to be taking some delight in this development, I’m not. I consider the Oil Drum crowd to be compatriots and seekers of the truth of resource supply. The difference may be one of perspective: cup half empty vs. cup half full.
While I’ve spent considerable time and effort debunking Peak Oil Theory, I describe myself as something of a “Plateau Oiler”. What classic (King Hubbert-style) Peak Oil Theory neglects is the powerful effect of economics on the search for resources. Our current boom has sustained because we have had oil prices in the range of $100 per barrel for four years. There is almost a limitless resource base to convert to reserves. In my opinion, we can sustain today’s rates from high cost sources like the shale plays and deepwater. I remain skeptical about our ability to sharply increase supply. I’m not a cornucopian, and in that sense I share some common ground with the more reasonable Peak Oilers.
And even at today’s prices, oil is still a miracle fuel and a bargain. Europeans are willing to pay double and more the U.S. price of gasoline & diesel. Sure, they modify their use somewhat, but they are simply making an economic choice about its use.
Really, I take the end of The Oil Drum as something of a contrary indicator: when the last Peak Oil enthusiast throws in the towel, could calamity be just around the corner?
Peak oil or not, that site (pointed to by ether you or someone else on FreeRepublic) was invaluable to me during the BP spill. The onsite cameras and reporting were very, very good.
Insufferable leftists they were, too. Good riddance.
I found it always a great source of technical data and explanation, combined with an never ending attempt to selective pick data to meet the conclusion they wanted.
There will be “peak oil” someday — but it won’t be because of a shortage of supply. The “peak oil proclaimers” did not give due consideration to technological innovation. Recent innovations have dramatically increased supply; and others will, one day, lead to reduced demand for petroleum.
higher prices in oil lead to investment in efficiency in its use - extending the amount of the economy that can still be efficiently served by oil, even if the supply does not keep growing as much/fast as in the past;
though current trends ARE extending to who-knows-when before supply will actually and considerably shrink - another result of higher prices; making more possible the investment in harder to reach supplies
Look on the bright side, this boom is going to starve OPEC to death. Hope those sheiks saved a few billion on the side because, they are going to get a rude lifesytle awakening come about 2015.
For decades it was gospel among all the experts in the government. I can't count how many times I have heard a powerful government bureaucrat say in a don't dare disagree with me voice, “We are running out of energy”.
Peak oil, bird flu, global warming, etc... All part part of the liberal arsenal, used to create ‘change’.
If he is willing to do a very little bit of easy research, have him looked at the historical values of world oil reserves going back a few decades.
While producing more and more petroleum per year, the reserves have grown.
http://www.tititudorancea.com/z/ies_world_crude_oil_proved_reserves.htm
Peak Cheap Oil is another matter.
Absolutely.
There will be a time of peak oil. It will eventually be too expensive to compete with an alternative.
That my be due to rising oil price, or falling price of something else, or more likely, a bit of both.
Oh. I thought they were going to stop making oil drums. I was worried for Caribbean steel drum bands.
However, peak cheap oil has been a reality for quite a while, and it's here to stay.
Thanks thackney.
At some site I read that most of the time only about 3 to 4% of the oil from ‘pool’ is actually brought to the surface.
Is that true, or did I misread?
I think 10~20% is typical without enhanced recovery methods like water or CO2 flood. Shale or other tight formations would likely be less.
What is “cheap”? Adjusted for inflation oil is priced at about 1965 levels. That should make you stop an think what the Fed has done to this country. The ratio between gold and oil prices has remained within a close range for about 100 years.
“Cheap” is the masses being able to access it as they have become accustomed to.
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