Posted on 07/19/2013 12:40:45 AM PDT by neverdem
RealClearPolitics election analyst Sean Trende has come under coordinated red-hot rhetorical fire from the Left for his thesis that one of the major causes of Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012 was that a disproportionate number of white voters – mostly downscale whites outside the South – stayed home. Much of the criticism of Trende’s thesis is based on deliberately misreading his policy prescriptions – but it’s also based on a simpler failure to grasp the basic math behind his calculations. Like any exercise in reading exit polls and census data, Trende’s assumptions (which he lays out explicitly) can be critiqued by people who are serious about understanding the issue; there are no definitive answers in this area other than final vote counts. But the vehemence directed at Trende’s number-crunching suggests a Democratic establishment that fears honest debate intruding in its narrative of an inevitable, permanent Democratic majority built on a permanently racially polarized electorate...
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
they stayed home because Romney is a RINO probably
Yes, here in the South, his letting his Supreme Court dictate gay laws in his state and Romneycare told us all we needed of his turncoat nature. We were screwed with our vote either way. Get another RINO like John McCain, or be with the devil we know.
Romney as a phony conservative, would have done more damage than BO (I know that is hard to imagine). The Republican party has given us RINOs in the last 3 elections. Most of us in the south are with the Tea Party now. It is our only hope of reversing the rampant socialism of Barak Obama and in the Republican party now.
never saw that coming
oh wait, I did
all you need to do is see the reaction here between Mormons and other various Christian denominations to understand people would stay home instead of vote
of course, the other main reason Romney lost was the demographic no one is talking about. the druggies, deviants, and various criminal types. they look at Romney as their polar opposite... everything they could have been... the summation of their failures... and they run screaming (mentally) from Romney.
one reason Sarah is so appealing is her background. the more they try to tear her down, the more she ‘looks like them)
And yet Romney still comfortably won the entire South (I hope people understand that Virginia and Florida are not Southern states).
Most of the fantasy candidates on FR and Republican policy changes that people want here would only succeed in the irrelevant and worthless task of winning the same Southern and Midwestern electoral votes but by a larger popular vote margin.
Of course people are missing the key point from Trende that it wasn't whites in Southern/Evangelical states that stayed home.
Republican turnout in Arkansas was not only better for Romney than McCain, it was better for Romney than for Bush in 2004, even when adjusted for population growth.
How is that remotely possible if the Mormon thing had even the slightest influence?
the mormon had nothing to do with crap - people seem to like crying VICTIM these days
Republicans need to make a play for the white vote.
And face up to the truth:
The black vote belongs to democrats. We’re not going to get blacks to vote for us - not now not ever... And we’re never going to get the ‘illegal’ vote. We need to quit wasting time and money...
I am going to join the Freedom Party if it ever gets formed
i just cant agree poeple staying home. obama is a lot worse then romney IMO
Thanks, finally a meaningful analysis of the election.
Reagan imposed tariffs and import quotas on Japanese goods because he understood that unemployment benefits, welfare or suggesting that these people work at McDonalds are not an adequate political response to the problem of American industry shedding huge numbers of jobs. The GOP has now compounded the rapid losses of jobs to imports with domestic wage rate erosion by turning a blind eye to tens of millions of illegal alien workers while seeking to import even more skilled workers to drive down wages.
Then there's the GOP's relentless attacks on Medicare. Paul Ryan was an albatross who sank Romney's campaign because he wrote a budget that focused on cutting Medicare, a benefit that GOP voters have spent decades paying for. Having Ryan on the GOP ticket was a stick in the eye for any working man or woman looking at retirement in the next decade or so.
It seems to me that a basic precept of political maneuvering is that you attack the economic interests of the other party's voters. The GOP seems relentlessly focused on attacking the economic interests of its working and middle class voters, seeming to think that narrowing its voter base to social conservatives and plutocrats will keep it in power. If it's not careful, and goes through with an amnesty bill, it could end up folding in 2014.
One thing they barely mention is the community organizing strategy of Obama/ Democrats . I believe their precinct captains are given a quota and no matter what will turn out that number. With driving people around from place to place to vote multiple times, they’ll get their numbers. I wonder how much voter ID can disrupt that where it needs to, the swing states.
Social conservatives loathe the spineless GOPe
The plutocrats obviously get everything they want from the GOP. That social conservatives are the only other faction that gets any love from the GOP (which then gets overturned in the Federal courts) just shows how completely the GOP has abandoned so many of the components of the Reagan coalition.
large corporations invariably support leftwing causes... Soros Buffet Gates and many of the super wealthy do too....
So what do you mean by plutocrat? Because that goes for both major parties.
Social conservatives are hated by GOPe elite - why do think they foist the likes of Romney on us?
I'd say social conservatives not as hated as ordinary working Americans. For instance, the GOP legislators vote in lockstep for social conservative measures. In contrast, a plurality or even a majority of GOP legislators supports amnesty and the expansion of H1-B visas and opposes sanctions on employers of illegal aliens or even round-ups of illegal aliens.
GOP is not socially conservative - amnesty is quite the opposite
Hopefully the white voters will wake up after seeing all the “BS” about the Zimmerman verdict and realize that this country is destined to be another Detroit if left in the hands of the demodummies. Name one city run by blacks that is prospering.
those voters are more awake than the GOPe
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