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Are Elections Decided by Chance?
Real Clear Politics ^ | August 13, 2013 | Sean Trende

Posted on 08/13/2013 11:40:33 AM PDT by neverdem

Over the past nine months, the Republican Party has been consumed by a debate over how it should respond to Mitt Romney's loss in 2012. Should it reach out to Hispanics? Should it move to the center? Should it try to differentiate itself from the Democratic Party by moving more to the right? Or perhaps it should attempt to redefine what "left" and “right” mean, possibly by embracing a more populist approach?

Let me step a bit outside of the proverbial box here, and ask a more foundational question: What if the GOP doesn’t need to change all that much? This grows out of an article I wrote in the immediate aftermath of the last election, showing that the state of the party wasn’t nearly as dire as many had made it out to be. It is nowhere near as weak as it was in the 1930s, and hasn’t begun to plumb the depths it reached in the 1970s. In fact, at the sub-presidential level, it is in pretty solid shape. Even at the presidential level, over the course of the past six elections, the GOP has lost the popular vote by, on average, 3.9 percentage points. Democrats, by contrast, lost by 9.9 points on average from 1968 to 1988.

Let’s flesh this idea out by asking ourselves seven interrelated questions, each of which casts some cold water on the idea that a rebranding would be overwhelmingly helpful:

1) What if elections are simply random?

2) What if it really is just the economy, stupid?

3) What if Republicans actually aren’t that out of step ideologically?

4) What if...

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: probability; statistics
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1 posted on 08/13/2013 11:40:34 AM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem
Because MASSIVE voter fraud could not POSSIBLY be a factor.

Democrats would NEVER cheat!

2 posted on 08/13/2013 11:45:08 AM PDT by null and void (Frequent terrorist attacks OR endless government snooping and oppression? Soon we'll have both!)
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To: neverdem
What if Democrats have become ever more skillful and creative in voter fraud? That is where most of the evidence points.

Plus we have such a dumbed down electorate that a moderate squish like Mitt Romney can suddenly be transformed into a right-wing extremist and the sheeple buy it.

3 posted on 08/13/2013 11:47:06 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: neverdem

As in, “conservatives have a snowball’s chance in hell” of ever being elected in NY, CA MA, etc etc:)


4 posted on 08/13/2013 11:47:14 AM PDT by Clink (Conservatives believe it when they see it. Liberals see it when they believe it.)
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To: neverdem

Elections are decided long before we vote.


5 posted on 08/13/2013 11:47:17 AM PDT by datura (When Democracy Fails, Vote From the Rooftops.)
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To: neverdem
Are Elections Decided by Chance?

Of course they are, except when he is working in the garden:


6 posted on 08/13/2013 11:47:58 AM PDT by Michael.SF. (0bama lied, Stevens died, now 0bama covers up the lies.)
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To: neverdem
Should it move to the center?

To do that they would have to move to the right.

7 posted on 08/13/2013 11:49:42 AM PDT by Michael.SF. (0bama lied, Stevens died, now 0bama covers up the lies.)
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To: neverdem

Random???

In Romney’s case it should be obvious what went wrong.


8 posted on 08/13/2013 11:50:38 AM PDT by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US Citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position.)
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To: neverdem

Unfortunately elections aren’t decided by chance (if that were the case the odds would at least once in a while favor the conservatives). Rather, elections are decided by a corrupt elite and an ignorant mass.


9 posted on 08/13/2013 11:51:40 AM PDT by AtlasStalled
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To: neverdem

The ‘Rats leave nothing to chance when it comes to elections.

They go balls to the wall to rig every one they can.


10 posted on 08/13/2013 11:58:47 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: sickoflibs

” In Romney’s case it should be obvious what went wrong.”

LOL....ROMNEY!


11 posted on 08/13/2013 12:08:29 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (The only people in the world who fear Obama are American citizens. KILL THE BILL!)
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To: neverdem

Sadly, elections are decided by morons.


12 posted on 08/13/2013 1:13:19 PM PDT by wny
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Are Elections Decided by Chance? is a good primer on probability, IMHO, voter fraud notwithstanding.

Mark Levin’s The Liberty Amendments - Restoring the American Republic: America’s Third Revolution.

Milton Friedman and Restraint: The Fed failed as lender of last resort in the Great Depression

ASYLUM-SEEKERS OVERWHELM THE BORDER

Brother, Can You Spare A Drone?

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

13 posted on 08/13/2013 1:22:47 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: Vigilanteman
O would have lost the last election in a nice landslide if all the registered conservatives had just voted... for anyone but Obama. But they did not so they really voted for obama!
14 posted on 08/13/2013 1:42:08 PM PDT by JSteff (It was ALL about SCOTUS... We are DOOMED for several generations. . Who cares? The Dems care!)
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To: neverdem

“Over the past nine months, the Republican Party has been consumed by a debate over how it should respond to Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012. ‘

If the party is having this debate then the party has no core beliefs or values. People and institutions with core beliefs and values do not require the level of agonizing public introspection the Republican Party is going through. Your core values sustain you in good times and bad.

Without core beliefs the party cannot define itself. They are trying to be everything to everybody and end up being nothing because they stand for nothing. That is why the party is losing. It represents nothing worth fighting for or going to the polls to support.

I find the story of Romney’s decision to run for President very illustrative of the dilemma the party is in. He claims the family got together and voted on whether or not he should run. He was one of the no votes. How can a man who doesn’t believe he should run excite voters enough to make them want to vote for him? If he doesn’t believe in himself, why should a voter believe in him?

Perhaps the truth is Romney was asked to run knowing the powers government the elites had decided he would lose. Perhaps McCain ran under the same circumstances.


15 posted on 08/13/2013 2:01:56 PM PDT by Soul of the South (Yesterday is gone. Today will be what we make of it.)
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To: Soul of the South
I find the story of Romney’s decision to run for President very illustrative of the dilemma the party is in. He claims the family got together and voted on whether or not he should run. He was one of the no votes.

I saw on TV PBS NewsHour correspondent Gwen Ifill and Washington Post reporter Dan Balz. Balz told that story.

16 posted on 08/13/2013 2:58:30 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: null and void
Very impressive use of HTML.
17 posted on 08/13/2013 4:57:40 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy
It woulda been a bit better if the <blink> command were enabled...
18 posted on 08/13/2013 5:02:06 PM PDT by null and void (Frequent terrorist attacks OR endless government snooping and oppression? Soon we'll have both!)
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To: null and void

I can see it blink, that’s what impressed me. I made the word “HTML” in my post blink.

Do you use Internet explorer? I heard you can’t get that command to work with that browser which might explain why you can’t see it.


19 posted on 08/13/2013 5:23:40 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

Hmmm? I guess the lack of blink is purely on my end. Firefox 23.0, OSX 10.8.4


20 posted on 08/13/2013 5:26:36 PM PDT by null and void (Frequent terrorist attacks OR endless government snooping and oppression? Soon we'll have both!)
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