Posted on 11/07/2013 5:26:35 AM PST by Drango
President Obama's poll numbers have hit just about the lowest point of his presidency.
They started sinking after the Obamacare website's miserable debut last month. Now, only around 40 percent of Americans think Obama is doing a good job. More thanhalf disapprove of his performance. (A year ago, the numbers were the opposite.)
It seems obvious to say that a high approval rating helps a president, while a low approval rating hurts him. But here are five reasons Obama's numbers might not be as troublesome as they sound.
He Was Never Popular With Congress Anyway
A high approval rating can give a president's initiatives a boost in Congress. "The willingness of members of Congress to take risks," explains Republican strategist Kevin Madden, "is usually proportional to the president's popularity."
Key word: Usually.
Even when Obama's popularity neared its high point, the president had a hard time getting bills through Congress. Just after his re-election, with approval ratings above 50 percent, Obama pushed immigration and gun control policies that seemingly had a lot of public support. Neither one became law.
Obama expressed his fury at the gun bill's failure during an emotional event at the White House rose garden, saying, "there were no coherent arguments as to why we wouldn't do this. It came down to politics."
In other words, Obama has governed like an unpopular president even when he was popular.
At least the guy is consistent, says Ann Selzer, president of the nonpartisan Selzer & Company polling firm in Iowa. "He has problems when his poll numbers are high in terms of getting legislation passed, and problems when his poll numbers are low."
Bad Poll Numbers Are Relative
Sure, only around 40 percent of Americans think Obama is doing a good job. But Congress would love to have that kind of approval rating. They're looking at single digits. And Republicans in Congress are doing even worse.
That makes some Democrats optimistic about their party's chances in 2014, even though the party of the president typically loses seats in a midterm.
"Independent voters more than anybody are really fed up with the Republicans," says Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "For the first time in I think modern history, you have polls out there showing that almost 65% of voters want to get rid of their member of Congress. That has never been the case," she says.
She's referring to an from last month showing widespread damage to the GOP from the government shutdown.
Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker says disapproval of Congress casts Obama's position in a different light.
"Usually you have a situation in which the President is up and Congress is down or the President is down and Congress is up," says Baker. "People liken it to a seesaw. But, in a sense, what we have now is a kind of rubber seesaw in which both sides are down."
Says pollster Selzer: "In a relative world where people are feeling that Washington's not moving, getting things done, or passing legislation, there's a sense that Obama is actually really surviving with the rosiest scenario."
There's Not Much Purple On The Congressional Map
In the mid-term elections, Obama's approval rating can only really tilt the outcome in purple, or highly competitive, congressional districts. And there are fewer of those than ever before. Redistricting has wiped out swing districts in favor of safe zones for Republicans and Democrats.
"Majorities are built in Congress based on a much smaller universe of swing districts," says Republican Madden. "But in those swing districts, it's the president's popularity that usually makes the difference between whether a Democrat can win or a Democrat will lose."
Political scientist Baker says winning the 17 seats necessary to regain control of the House from Republicans "has always been an uphill prospect for the Democrats," no matter what the president's approval rating might be.
Still, this week's gubernatorial election in Virginia showed that Obama could be a drag on Democratic candidates in purple areas. Terry McAuliffe was forecast to carry the state by double digits. Instead, he won by a much smaller margin.
It's A Pretty Narrow Swing
Although Obama is at a low point now, his approval rating hasn't really varied all that much. After his initial election spike in 2008, his favorability numbers have settled into a band between the low 50s to around 40 percent. Not great, but not really terrible either — especially compared to his predecessor.
President George W. Bush had a high of 90 percent approval just after the 9/11 attacks and a low of 25 percent late in his second term.
Obama's Done Running For Office
Perhaps the biggest reason presidents chase high approval ratings is to win re-election. As Obama often tells audiences with evident relief, that's not something he ever has to worry about again.
He has more ‘flexibility’ in his second term.
Actually, there some truth in it. If his polls are at 40%, he still owns 100% of the Presidency.
The reason I would give congress low approval is because they have done nothing to stop Obama.
He should worry about his lousy poll numbers because he’s black and that makes him impeachment proof. Period.
Talk about being in denial.
It's amazing how any time Obambi's numbers dip below 39% a new sample is determined and the numbers are slowly pushed back up.
I hear NO good news to ever push his number up but I see plenty of articles every two months talking about how his numbers have NOW tumbled to 42% approval.
It's kind of like this:
"Did Hitler care about his poll numbers? Did Stalin? Did Pol Pot?"
End of article.
Under Clinton, we had MORAL RELATIVISM
Under Obama, we have MORAL RATIONALIZATION
This regime (and it is a regime because it emcompasses more than just the Obama Administration) tries to calm the sheep by rationalizing EVERYTHING!
This according to a Democrat strategist. Facts sometimes get in the way, though. Romney won among independents last year, and Cuccinelli won independents this week. This is a myth that independents hate Republicans. They are selecting them over the democrats by a good margin. The problem is the Democrats have mastered getting their base out to vote (partly through technology and partly because they are effectively demonizing the opponents into a giant hole early). The GOP is in disarray, voters on the right are not coming out, and the GOP is woeful on technology and they are systematically undercutting anyone with an independent brain cell and doesn't just go along with leadership and K Street.
Obama may not have to worry, but the Democrat politicians who have marched lockstep with him far into the kill zone may have a few concerns.
Their whole argument is that Obama couldnt get this congress to do anything even when he was popular early this year.
But they miss that if Obama is unpopular he cant fly to states and save Dem Senators in next years races.
His helping in VA race didnt help.
>>>> In other words, Obama has governed like an unpopular president even when he was popular. <<<<
NPR lying as usual. SINCE WHEN Obama actually govern?
He’s been dictating (EOs) ever since Nov 2008, and no I haven’t forgotten his ‘Office of the President-Elect’ seal.
NPR: Expert turd polishers.
His numbers can’t fall below 36% because at that point the terminally brain dead kick in.
Once 36% is reached is the story becomes “his numbers have stopped falling..... the new day is here”
So, with Bush when poll numbers dropped it was “impeachment” or “resignation” or “moderation” daily from the media. When O’s numbers drop..........”Meh” is the official statement from the media.
... wow, someone with the courage to say it. Well done.
It goes far beyond Congress.
What we have in Washington is an enormous single-brained behemoth. A huge one-party monstrosity for which there is ZERO effective opposition because the GOP is all, completely silent.
The GOP needs to stand the heck up, and oppose Obama.
The GOP needs to bring jobs back to America.
The GOP is useless, at the moment.
Stand up GOP. Not for foreign interests.
For America.
NPR: government subsidized apologists. Pure propaganda.
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